Zero Hedge – American Conservative Movement

Endgame: Interest on US Debt Surpasses $1 Trillion for First Time Ever, Exploding August Budget Deficit to Record High

Zero Hedge — Fri, 13 Sep 2024 04:53:32 +0000

(Zero Hedge)—2024 was the year when the runaway US budget deficit was supposed to gradually normalize, and after two crisis-years, the US was supposed to end its drunken sailor spending ways. And for a while there, it seemed touch and go, with the cumulative US deficit initially overtaking 2023 – forget about the batshit insane 2021 and 2022 when the deficit hit a mindboglilng 18% of GDP…

… before slowly easing back for a few months, only to sprint ahead of 2023 once more in August…

… when THIS happened: an August budget deficit of a staggering $380 billion, up more than 50% from the $243 billion in July, and up more than 55% from July, and up 66% from last August… oh, and almost $100 billion more than the median estimate of $292.5 billion, which may be why the Treasury quietly snuck the number out by leaking it after 5am ET when everyone was sleeping, not at its regular time of 2pm ET.

That’s right, in a year when the monthly budget deficit was meandering along in the merry Chernobyl way, not great, not terrible, someone in the BIden admin had the brilliant idea to spend a metric asston of money to reboot the economy so we don’t get a recession just in time for the elections, and sure enough, government spending went into absolutely epic overdrive, as outlays hit a mindblowing $686 billion, the highest since March 2023, and only a handful of crisis months during the covid crash saw greater government spending in any given month.

For those wondering how government receipts have performed during this period of exploding spending, here is the answer:

… which is remarkable because while spending is absolutely exploding, revenues have also managed to bounce back, largely thanks to capital gains taxes on the surging stock market.

Yet looking at the dire big picture, it is unfortunately all downhill from here for one simple reason: we have now crossed the Minsky Moment in terms of how much the US spends on interest on its debt, which as regular readers know is hitting a new record high every day – it just closed above $35.3 trillion – and is growing by about $1 trillion every 100 days. That means that with interest rates at 40 year highs, the prediction we made last July, has finally come true because according to today’s Budget statement, the amount spent on gross interest in August was $92.3 billion…

… which means that the cumulative total for Fiscal 2024 – where there is one more month to go until the end of the fiscal year (which ends Sept 30) – just hit an all time high of $1.049 trillion, the first time in history when interest on US debt has surpassed $1 trillion.

And what’s worse, this number is not even annualized (as explained, it’s just for 11 months of the year): annualized, US debt comes out to $1.158 trillion, or $1.2 trillion rounded up as the Treasury Department itself admits…

… and the stunning punchline is that as of today, gross interest on US debt has surpassed not just Defense spending, but also Income Security, Health, Veterans Benefits and Medicare, and is now the second biggest outlay of the US government, second only to Social Security, which is roughly $1.5 trillion annualized.

But wait, there’s more: the latest numbers confirm that we are well on our way to hitting our other forecast from April 1, of the US hitting an insane $1.6 trillion in interest expense by the year-end…

Why oh why are yields surging? Oh yes…

US Interest To Hit $1.6 Trillion By Year End, Making It The Largest US Government Outlayhttps://t.co/pGdjRlhuPX

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 1, 2024

… which mean interest expense will soon surpass Social Security spending and become the single largest outlay of the US government, some time in late 2024 or early 2025 at the earliest.

In other words, game over.

Which begs the question: why would Trump even want to be in charge when the house of cards finally comes crashing down. Let Kamala have it…

Judge Rules RFK Jr. Can Sue Biden Admin Over Censorship After Supreme Court Rejects Challenge From States

Zero Hedge — Fri, 23 Aug 2024 09:15:49 +0000

A federal judge on Tuesday ruled that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. can continue to pursue his lawsuit against the Biden administration over censorship at the direction of the government.

The decision comes after a June ruling by the Supreme Court, which established who can sue the Biden administration for violating their First Amendment rights when government officials pressured social media companies to suppress free speech did not have standing to sue.

According to District Court Judge Terry Doughty, Kennedy meets the standard set by the Supreme Court because there is “ample evidence” to show he was censored at the direction of government actors, and is at “substantial risk” that the censorship will continue, the Daily Caller reports.

Under the Supreme Court’s Murthy v. Missouri ruling, Doughty explained that “a court must make specific findings that a particular defendant pressured a particular platform to censor a particular topic before the platform suppressed a particular plaintiff’s speech on that topic.”

Kennedy was named by one of the “Disinformation Dozen” – and was specifically targeted by the government over what they alleged was COVID-19 misinformation, Doughty noted in his ruling – adding that there is “not much dispute” that Kennedy, and his organization – Children’s Health Defense, were “were specifically targeted by the White House, the Office of Surgeon General, and CISA [Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency].” […]

— Read More: www.zerohedge.com

Lithium: A Clean Energy Solution With a Dirty Secret

Zero Hedge — Mon, 01 Jul 2024 10:22:17 +0000

Lithium is essential for the clean energy transition, but its extraction often involves severe environmental and health consequences.

AlkaLi, a startup company, aims to revolutionize lithium extraction with a lower environmental footprint and potentially make the US more competitive in lithium processing.

The demand for lithium is expected to increase dramatically in the coming years, driven by the growth of electric vehicles and renewable energy storage.

Lithium is essential to saving the world from climate change – but will it destroy the environment in the process? […]

— Read More: www.zerohedge.com

Banksy ‘Launches’ Migrant Boat Stunt at Glastonbury Festival, Which Has an 8-Mile-Long, 20FT-High Border-Wall

Zero Hedge — Mon, 01 Jul 2024 10:20:34 +0000

The ‘street’ artist Banksy carried out a stunt at the now uber trendy Glastonbury Festival Friday night by launching a mock-up small boat complete with dummy migrants into the crowd.

The Guardian reports that many in the crowd thought it was part of the band Idles’ set given that their songs are all about lefty political positions such as the idea that limiting mass illegal immigration is right wing and evil.

The report notes, however, that Banksy was behind the stunt stating “The raft, a reference to the small boats carrying migrants across the Channel that have been such a high-profile target of Rishi Sunak’s immigration policy, was crowdsurfed through the thousands-strong Other stage crowd, which Idles were headlining on Friday night.”

Given that Sunak has done practically nothing to prevent the boats and the Conservative government has actively incentivised mass illegal immigration for years now, you’d be forgiven for thinking the stunt was some sort of endorsement. […]

— Read More: www.zerohedge.com

Taliban Power-Grab Over Opium Production Sparked Surge In Fentanyl Use

Zero Hedge — Sun, 30 Jun 2024 14:35:06 +0000

For years, Afghanistan has been the world’s premier cultivator of poppy used as the base for heroin distributed in Europe, Africa and Canada according to the key findings of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s (UNODC) World Drug Report 2024, while the Americas have largely been supplied with product derived from poppy plantations in Mexico and Colombia.

With the Taliban retaking power in April 2022, the new Afghan government instituted a strict ban on the cultivation of poppy, not only curtailing the supply of illicit substances like heroin but also that of medical prescription opioids.

As a result, potential opium production dropped by 95 percent between 2022 and 2023 to 333 tons. […]

— Read More: www.zerohedge.com

Nearly 1-In-3 Americans Earning Over $150,000 Worry About Making Ends Meet: Fed Report

Zero Hedge — Sun, 30 Jun 2024 03:46:47 +0000

Americans in upper-income groups are concerned about their ability to pay bills, with more than 15 percent of this demographic taking up additional jobs over the past year, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

As of April 2024, 32.5 percent of respondents earning over $150,000 annually were worried about making ends meet over the next six months, up from 21.7 percent in April of last year, the June survey showed.

This percentage is higher than for those in the income groups of $100,000 to $149,999, $70,000 to $99,999, and $40,000 to $69,999. Only individuals who earned less than $40,000, the lowest income group, were more worried than the $150,000-plus group.

Among all income levels, the percentage of people anxious about their ability to pay bills was higher in April 2024 compared to a year ago. The share of respondents concerned about making ends meet rose among those already paying their bills on time, with the increase most prevalent among people who are younger, female, or in higher income groups. […]

— Read More: www.zerohedge.com

Is China Hiding How Much Gold It Really Has?

Zero Hedge — Wed, 26 Jun 2024 10:50:48 +0000

A few weeks ago, gold sold off on news that the People’s Bank of China didn’t add any gold to its reserves in May.

At the time, I called it a “kneejerk reaction,” and said the news wasn’t “a particularly good reason to sell gold.”

“The fact the PBoC didn’t buy any gold in May is certainly interesting, but it hardly counts as earthshaking news. Standing pat for one month doesn’t mean “China has stopped buying gold” as some news outlets framed it.”

Before the news, China had bought gold for 18 straight months. It ranked as the biggest central bank gold buyer in 2023. Officially, the People’s Bank of China added more than 300 tons of gold to its reserves during its buying spree. […]

— Read More: www.zerohedge.com

Putin’s “War” to Re-Shape the American Zeitgeist

Zero Hedge — Wed, 26 Jun 2024 09:04:55 +0000

The G7 and the subsequent Swiss ‘Bürgenstock Conference’ can – in retrospect – be understood as preparation for a prolonged Ukraine war. The three centrepiece announcements emerging from the G7 – the 10 year Ukraine security pact; the $50 ‘billion Ukraine loan’; and the seizing of interest on Russian frozen funds – make the point. The war is about to escalate.

These stances were intended as preparation of the western public ahead of events. And in case of any doubts, the blistering belligerency towards Russia emerging from the European election leaders was plain enough: They sought to convey a clear impression of Europe preparing for war.

What then lies ahead? According to White House Spokesman John Kirby: “Washington’s position on Kiev is “absolutely clear”: […]

— Read More: www.zerohedge.com

What Will Happen to Inflation Under a Trump Presidency

Zero Hedge — Mon, 24 Jun 2024 11:19:23 +0000

With the elections approaching, Trump and Biden are outbidding each other to show who is the toughest on trade. Trump has proposed a universal tariff and even higher tariffs on China, while Biden has kept the Trump tariffs of 2018 and added specific tariffs on “strategic” imports from China.
Since Trump is ahead in the polls and we expect the economic data to deteriorate, we made a Trump victory our baseline in February. A universal tariff would lead to a rebound of inflation in 2025. Recent simulations, which include retaliation by the EU and China, suggest a more prolonged inflationary effect extending into 2026 and an adverse effect on US GDP growth in 2026.
If the Republicans also get control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, reduced immigration and tax cuts could reinforce the inflationary impact from the universal tariff.
Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether the Trump legal cases will lead to a sustained rebound for Biden in the polls. However, they are highlighting that “lawfare” has become a feature of the US elections, which are likely to be contested again. This leads to a further erosion of US institutions and undermines the long-run strength of the economy.

[…]

— Read More: www.zerohedge.com

Affordability, Charging-Infrastructure, & Range-Anxiety Continue to Keep Americans From Fully Embracing EVs

Zero Hedge — Sun, 23 Jun 2024 12:56:13 +0000

While the US and the EU look at different ways to add tariffs to China-made electric vehicles to prevent supply disruption, the reality is that overall demand for EVs appears as though it is starting to peak.

Such was the topic of a new FT report that looked into why Americans aren’t buying more electric vehicles.

“It’s just not accessible to us at this point in our life,” one couple told FT, who said they were looking for a more affordable vehicle. They went with a $19,000 Honda Accord after a trade-in, since only five new EV models under $40,000 have hit the market in 2024, the report says. […]

— Read More: www.zerohedge.com