However, as many analysts point out, this is not necessarily the main factor that dictates the risk of a credit crunch. Deposit flight is certainly an important risk. Many regional banks will have to cut lending to families and businesses as deposits shrink, but in the United States bank loans are less than 19 percent of corporate credit according to the IMF, while in the euro area it is more than 80 percent. What will generate a credit crunch is the destruction of capital in the asset base of most lenders.

The slump in mark-to-market valuations of all asset classes from loans to investments is what will ultimately drive an inevitable credit contraction.

Credit standards have tightened significantly already, and the credit impulse of the economy, both in the US and euro area, has deteriorated rapidly, according to the respective Bloomberg indices. Both are below the March 2021 low.

We must remember that credit standards’ tightening was already a reality before the Silicon Valley Bank demise. But the reality check of capital destruction in the financial system’s asset base is far from done.

Start-ups will most likely see the most severe crunch in financing as the tech bubble burst adds to the asset base capital destruction in private equity and venture capital firms, who have delayed all they could the required write-downs and face a sobering reality check. Our internal estimate of capital destruction in the asset base of banks and private equity firms is between a 15 to 25 percent wipeout, which is consistent with the average decline in market value over the October 2021–March 2023 period.

Real estate investments all over the US and Europe require a significant reevaluation now that real estate has underperformed the market for eighteen months, according to Morgan Stanley. The optimistic valuations of real estate and corporate investments in banks’ balance sheets will require a significant analysis and subsequent write-off that leads to much tighter credit standards and stringent investment conditions.

Capital destruction tends to be forgotten in a world used to constant central bank easing, but it is likely to be the main source of strangling of credit to families and businesses as banks and private equity firms deal with the loss of value and weakening earnings and cash flow of investments made at elevated valuations and unreasonable prices.

The main challenge this time is that capital destruction is happening in almost every part of the lenders’ asset base, from the allegedly low-risk part, sovereign bond portfolios, to the aggressively priced investments in volatile businesses and bull-market valuations of corporate and venture capital investments. The profitable asset part of banks will likely require important provisions for nonperforming loans, a subject that was raised by the Federal Reserve and the ECB months before the banking crisis. Furthermore, as governments will blame the recent collapses on lack of regulation again, it is extremely likely that new rules will be imposed demanding banks to book large provisions recognizing losses on the loan book ahead of time.

Even if we assume a modest impact on banks’ balance sheets, the combination of higher rates, declining optimism about the economy and the slump in equity, private investments and bond valuations is going to inevitably lead to a massive crunch in access to credit and financing. It is more than banks.

The crunch will come from private direct middle market loans, a decline in high-yield bond demand, while institutional leveraged loans may fall as access to leverage is more expensive and challenging and investment grade bonds may likely continue to see strong demand but at higher costs. The question is not when there will be a credit crunch, but how large and for how long. Considering the size of the famous “bubble of everything “and its slow implosion, it may last for a couple of years even with a central bank pivot, because by now a reverse in monetary policy may only zombify the financial system.

Article cross-posted from Mises.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently told the media that she expects banks to be more cautious in the aftermath of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. She said: “We already saw some tightening of lending standards in the banking system prior to that episode, and there may be some more to come.”

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference that the turmoil in the banking sector is “likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which would in turn affect economic outcomes.”

The chief economist of Citibank, Nathan Sheets, has also warned that the nation could be headed for a credit crunch as well as a recession in the next few months in the wake of the bank collapses and the Fed’s monetary tightening.

As for when he expects this to happen, Sheets noted: “That’s something that will unfold in [the] coming months and quarters, and could indeed make that recession that we’re expecting somewhat longer than it would be otherwise and somewhat deeper.”

In a credit crunch, banks are significantly less likely to lend money, making it more difficult for people to make the types of large purchases that tend to require loans, such as homes and vehicles. Less credit would also be available for businesses.

This slowdown in economic activity could see mass layoffs on top of those we have already seen in recent months as well as business failures and consumers defaulting on debts. If the credit crunch continues, financial institutions may become even stricter in their lending standards, spurring a downward spiral some believe will be one of the biggest problems facing our nation in the next six months.

In this type of environment, those who seek to apply for a loan or extend their credit could well encounter tighter lending requirements. This is bad news at a time when standards are already tightening, with several banks recently tightening qualifications for credit cards, home equity lines of credit and car loans by raising the minimum accepted credit score and interest rates and reducing credit limits.

There are many signs of a major economic downturn throughout the country, with Disney laying off thousands of workers, Bed, Bath and Beyond closing its doors entirely, and Walmart closing multiple stores throughout the country.

How can Americans prepare for a potential credit crunch?

Although there is not much we can do to stop what is most likely coming, people who are anticipating a need to borrow money in the near future should start taking steps to make sure their credit is as good as possible. This may mean reducing your credit utilization rate, reviewing your credit report and disputing errors on it, and being sure to pay debt payments like credit card bills on time every month. Meanwhile, businesses that have loans that are approaching the end of their term should roll it over or refinance it as soon as possible rather than waiting.

Experts are also advising Americans to make sure they have cash on hand to cover emergency situations, such as a period of joblessness or a full economic collapse. Of course, that is easier said than done at a time when inflation remains high and many people are struggling to cover the rising costs of everyday goods and groceries.

Sources for this article include:

• SHTFPlan.com
• CNBC.com
• NATURAL NEWS

US bank lending contracted by the most on record in the last two weeks of March, indicating a tightening of credit conditions in the wake of several high-profile bank collapses that risks damaging the economy.

In other words, we have never seen bank lending shrink faster than it did during the second half of March.

Wow. And it turns out that small banks are getting particularly tight with their money…

Commercial bank lending dropped nearly $105 billion in the two weeks ended March 29, the most in Federal Reserve data back to 1973. The more than $45 billion decrease in the latest week was primarily due to a a drop in loans by small banks.

The pullback in total lending in the last half of March was broad and included fewer real estate loans, as well as commercial and industrial loans.

As I have noted previously, small and mid-size banks provide the bulk of the commercial real estate loans in this country.

We are already starting to see prices for commercial real estate plunge, and now Morgan Stanley is warning that the drop that we will ultimately see could rival “the decline during the 2008 financial crisis”…

Investors have sharpened their focus on this sector, given regional banks’ significant share in CRE lending. Even before the banking-industry turmoil, however, CRE was facing risks from long-term trends, with remote work threatening the office sub-sector.

What’s more, the sector is now facing a huge “refinancing wall”: More than half of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will be up for refinancing in the next couple of years. Even if current rates stay where they are, new lending rates are likely to be 3.5 to 4.5 percentage points higher than they are for many of CRE’s existing mortgages.

Commercial property prices have already turned down, and Morgan Stanley analysts forecast prices could fall as much as 40%, rivaling the decline during the 2008 financial crisis. These kinds of challenges can hurt not only the real estate industry, but also entire business communities related to it.

A lot of people thought that I was exaggerating when I stated that we are heading into the worst commercial real estate crisis in our history. But I was not exaggerating one bit.

Of course the credit crunch that we are now experiencing will have enormous ramifications for the entire economy.

When consumers have access to less credit, they spend less money. And when consumers spend less money, businesses bring in less revenue and they start laying off workers. And when workers get laid off, they get behind on their debts. And that creates even more stress on the banks.

This new credit crisis threatens to spiral out of control, but Fed officials insist that everything is just fine. In fact, James Bullard seems convinced that interest rates should go even higher…

“Financial stress seems to be abated, at least for now,” Bullard told reporters Thursday after speaking at an event in Little Rock, Arkansas. “And so it’s a good moment to continue to fight inflation and try to get on that disinflationary path.”

The St. Louis Fed chief said he doesn’t think tighter credit conditions stemming from the recent banking turmoil will be substantial enough to tip the US economy into recession, noting that demand for loans is still strong.

Demand for loans may be strong, but the supply of credit is starting to dry up really quick.

Meanwhile, Americans continue to pull money out of the banks at a staggering rate…

Friday’s report also showed commercial bank deposits dropped $64.7 billion in the latest week, marking the 10th-straight decrease that mainly reflected a decline at large firms.

Every week that this happens, it is just going to cause banks to get even tighter with their money.

And bank economists surveyed by the American Bankers Association expect credit conditions to continue to tighten during the months ahead…

• The Headline Credit Index fell in Q2 to 5.8, decreasing 6.7 points to its lowest point since the onset of the pandemic. The reading indicates broad-based expectations for weaker credit market conditions over the next six months among bank economists, and banks are likely to grow more cautious about extending credit.
• The Consumer Credit Index fell 7.9 points to 5.8 in Q2. EAC members expect credit availability to deteriorate more than credit quality, though almost all expect both to decline. The sub-50 reading indicates that consumer credit conditions are likely to weaken over the next six months.
• The Business Credit Index fell 5.6 points to 5.8 in Q2. All EAC members expect business credit availability will deteriorate in the next six months, and most expect business credit quality to deteriorate. The sub-50 reading indicates that EAC members expect that overall credit conditions for businesses will continue to weaken over the next two quarters.

Just look at those numbers.

Any figure under 50 is bad, and those numbers are in the single digits.

In all the years that I have been writing, I have never seen anything like this.

So I am encouraging all of my readers to brace themselves for a massive economic avalanche.

A major credit crunch is already here, but most Americans still don’t understand that severe economic pain is dead ahead.

Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here. Article cross-posted from The Economic Collapse Blog.