The Caucus published a letter sent to McCarthy on Thursday, demanding that he compel Biden and the Democratic-led Senate to approve the Limit, Save, Grow (LSG) Act – legislation to raise the debt limit passed by the House in April – to avert a debt default, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said could come as early as June 1. Additionally, the caucus said that McCarthy should include the “Secure the Border Act,” a border security bill passed by House Republicans in a final deal.
“Press reports indicate [Biden] is pushing to water down provisions of the LSG Act while simultaneously demanding a debt ceiling increase of $4 trillion or more. This is outrageous,” wrote the caucus in a letter, which was signed by 35 House Republicans. They demanded that McCarthy not deviate from the LSG Act in his negotiating position.
Democrats have been united in their opposition to the LSG Act, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer terming it “DOA” in the Senate. Democrats have also balked at including discrete provisions of the act, such as new work requirements for welfare programs, in a deal.
Yellen has frequently warned McCarthy that the U.S. may default on its debt as early as June 1, claiming that it would lead to catastrophic effects for the global economy. However, in their letter, the caucus suggested that Yellen was being disingenuous about the date in order to compel Republicans into a premature deal well before a default would actually occur.
“We urge you to lead Republicans in deflating the manufactured crisis of the June 1, 2023 “X-date”,” wrote the caucus. They demanded that the Treasury “immediately furnish a complete justification of the June 1 projection.”
The strongly worded letter comes as both the House and Senate have departed Washington, D.C. for the Memorial Day weekend, and plan to return only shortly before June 1. Democrats and Republicans still remain far apart on a deal, with the GOP demanding policy concessions and spending cuts that Democrats have resisted.
Amid this impasse, Biden has publicly mulled invoking Section 4 of the 14th Amendment to unilaterally pay U.S. debts without congressional authorization — a proposal that has been criticized by some who claim it could lead to a “constitutional crisis” and could be “impeachable.” Other reports indicate that McCarthy might be considering a bipartisan deal with House Democrats without Freedom Caucus votes.
The caucus, however, remains insistent it should be part of any deal that McCarthy strikes. “The only hope for transformative change in Washington comes from a Unified House Republican Conference. You have that,” they said. “We are behind you. Use our unity to make history.”
Biden, McCarthy, Schumer, and Republican Reps. Garret Graves and Patrick McHenry did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.
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]]>“I think there would be a huge backlash from our entire House Democratic Caucus, certainly the progressives, but also in the streets,” Jayapal told CNN reporter Manu Raju. “You know, I mean, I think it is important that we don’t take steps back from the very strong agenda that the president himself shepherded and led over the last two years.”
Republicans, led by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, are insisting on spending cuts to accompany any increase in the limit to the national debt, which currently stands at $31.4 trillion, while Democrats have demanded a “clean” debt ceiling increase, with no spending cuts or other legislative items attached.
WATCH:
Biden and McCarthy talked Monday but failed to reach an agreement on lifting the debt ceiling.
“We do not legislate through the debt ceiling for this very reason,” Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York said.
The House of Representatives passed the Limit, Save, Grow Act April 26 by a 217-215 vote. The legislation increases the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion, repeals portions of the Inflation Reduction Act, requires Congress to approve regulations that have an economic effect of $100 million or more and establishes new work requirements for some beneficiaries of welfare programs.
Some left-wing members of Congress are calling on Biden to invoke the 14th Amendment to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling.
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]]>The deadline for the ruling class to lift the debt limit is rapidly approaching in early June as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen exhausts all of the department’s “extraordinary measures”. Most of those measures are nothing more than fear-mongering and propaganda. If a debt ceiling deal isn’t reached, it could mean the Treasury forgoes Social Security payments, payments to Medicare and Medicaid, and ultimately payments to U.S. bondholders, according to a report by Yahoo News.
If the ruling class allows itself to default, it will surely use this as an excuse to usher in the fully controlled new slave system of central bank digital currencies.
“The closer the US gets to the debt ceiling, the more we expect these market-stress indicators to worsen, leading to increased volatility in equity and corporate bond markets and inhibiting firms’ ability to finance themselves and engage in the productive investment that is essential for extending the current [economic] expansion,” The White House CEA said in a May 3rd post.
Additionally, millions of people would lose their jobs and a sharp economic contraction would lead to a massive recession, the CEA warned. “In the third quarter of 2023, the first full quarter of the simulated debt ceiling breach, the stock market plummets 45%, leading to a hit to retirement accounts; meanwhile, consumer and business confidence takes substantial hits, leading to a pullback in consumption and investment,” the CEA said, adding that unemployment would increase by 5 percentage points.
“Without the ability to spend on counter-cyclical measures such as extended unemployment insurance, Federal and state governments would be hamstrung in responding to this turmoil and unable to buffer households from the impacts,” the CEA explained.
“Hamstrung” is what the government should be before they cease to exist at all.
However, according to the CEA, U.S. households mong the slave class would be unable to turn to the private sector for loans because interest rates for credit cards and personal loans would “skyrocket”.
Article cross-posted from SHTF Plan.
]]>Earlier, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had said that the X-date—the date when the United States will be unable to pay its bills and thus risk a default—could be June 1. However, Phillips estimates that the X-date will come later. The X-date “could be June 1. It also could be June 8th or 9th. And it also could be, probably not, sometime in July. So, our guess right now is that the real deadline is probably more like June 8th or 9th. That’s when they are at sort of greatest risk,” he said in a May 19 interview with Bloomberg.
“The reality is Congress has to do this (raising the debt ceiling) at some point very soon, and they should just go ahead and do it. So, waiting for the last minute isn’t necessarily the right move, even though we think that maybe they could go a little bit longer.”
Phillips also pointed to the possibility of rating agencies downgrading the United States. In an April 25 post, Fitch said, “If, ahead of the X-date, we were to assess the risk of a default as having become more material, the US’s rating would likely be placed on Rating Watch Negative and further rating action could be considered.”
However, if the debt limit were not raised or suspended in time to prevent a default, Fitch would move the U.S. ratings to Restricted Default (RD).
“Affected Treasury securities would carry a ‘D’ rating until the default was cured. Prioritizing debt payments to avoid an immediate default, if this were possible, might not be consistent with a ‘AAA’ rating.”
Phillips says the odds of a ratings downgrade are “pretty low” as he believes the chances of the United States missing any payment are low.
The cash balance at the U.S. Treasury has drastically fallen in just a week. On May 11, the treasury’s closing cash balance stood at $143.31 billion. A week later, on May 18, the cash balance dropped to $57.34 billion, a decline of almost 60 percent.
“The US Treasury has $57 billion in cash on hand while the government carries $31 trillion in debt. That’s the equivalent of an average person having $1,000 in cash on hand and $543,859 in debt. Scary,” Grit Capital CEO Genevieve Roch-Decter said in a May 21 tweet.
Regarding the issue, Phillips predicted that the Treasury might run down its cash balance to near zero by the time lawmakers decide to raise the debt ceiling. The Treasury could then issue $500 billion–$600 billion worth of bills over a few weeks.
“The concern is that … that is going to pull money out of other places and put it on the Fed’s balance sheet where it’s not being invested in equities or whatever else. I think it is something to keep an eye on,” he said.
With only a few weeks remaining before the X-date arrives, Republican and Democrat lawmakers have yet to reach a deal on raising the debt ceiling. On May 21, House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and President Joe Biden discussed the issue on the phone.
The two are set to meet on May 22 to further discuss raising the debt ceiling. McCarthy and Republicans want the Biden administration to implement spending cuts and increase the defense budget. Biden has indicated that he is open to making the spending cuts.
Some Senate Democrats have asked Biden to invoke the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment to prevent a debt default.
However, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce sent a letter to the president on May 19, warning that attempting to invoke the 14th Amendment powers would be “as economically calamitous as a default triggered by a failure to lift the debt limit in a timely manner.”
“The Constitution is clear. The power to ‘borrow money on the credit of the United States’ is given to Congress (Article 1, Section 8) and not the Executive,” the letter stated.
Article cross-posted from our premium news partners at The Epoch Times.
]]>Every American needs to understand two things. First, invoking the 14th Amendment as a way to print more money to pay our debts without raising the debt ceiling officially would be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. In this case, the camel is the U.S. Dollar’s tenuous position as the world reserve currency. Second, most of those who are pressing Joe Biden to invoke the 14th Amendment are well aware that it would rapidly tank the economy.
In fact, they’re banking on it.
Would defaulting on our debts be bad? Absolutely. It may not be as bad as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and her team of progressive economic advisors have deduced; they believe (or at least state as their belief) that models show a U.S. government default would be catastrophic, sending most markets spiraling, driving up unemployment, shutting down businesses, and starting a chain reaction that results in fiscal carnage.
It would be bad. I’m not an economist but those I’ve consulted with think Yellen may be overstating the dangers. With that said, none of them were willing to go on record saying they thought Yellen was being overly dramatic, so my concerns have not been fully abated. They think she’s overstating but they wouldn’t bet on it. As one conservative economist told me, “I’m not planning for the apocalypse but I did move portions of my portfolio to gold, just in case.”
A default would be bad and might be very bad. Invoking the 14th Amendment would be very bad in the best-case-scenario. Moves across the globe for de-dollarization have been rapid and spreading. This has been in-progress for a while, prompted by BRICS nations’ desire to end U.S. Dollar hegemony, then exacerbated by “bully” tactics against Russia at the start of the Ukraine War. It wasn’t just Russia that took notice of how SWIFT was weaponized. Other nations watched disapprovingly and began looking for alternatives.
By invoking the 14th Amendment, Joe Biden will verify what many nations have been thinking for a while, that the United States is too reckless and the U.S. Dollar is too printable to be trusted. By removing Congress from the equation, Biden will be declaring that the White House is engaging in full-blown Modern Monetary Theory. It would be the death knell for the U.S. Dollar and begin the rapid collapse of the U.S. economy.
Again, I’m not an economist. I talk to people who are much more versed on the topic than me and while there was no consensus on what would happen if we default, there was clear consensus on the outcome of declaring the U.S. Dollar is illegitimate. That’s essentially what Biden would be doing by invoking the 14th Amendment to pay our bills.
People like Senator Bernie Sanders and other politicians pushing Biden to do it are aware of this. The globalist elite cabal is also very aware of it and are likely behind many of the calls by Democrats to invoke it. Destroying the U.S. economy is a prerequisite for them to achieve The Great Reset and this appears to be the easiest way for them to see it happen.
Politically, it does not behoove Joe Biden to default, nor does it benefit his career to spark an economic collapse by invoking the 14th Amendment. But what if the things I’ve been saying for two years are correct? What if the powers-that-be who are controlling the Biden-Harris regime have no concerns about anyone’s political future because they think they can take the nation out before the next election? What if all of this is part of their plan? If Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy are unable to raise the debt ceiling, I believe that would be proof positive that this is all being orchestrated to bring about our demise.
Unfortunately, raising the debt ceiling isn’t difficult. All the Uniparty Swamp needs are a few victories for both sides so they can tell their base that they won, and the can is officially kicked down the road. It’s unfortunate that it’s so easy because if we had real patriots representing us instead of the feckless RINOs of the Uniparty Swamp, we might actually be able to use debt ceiling negotiations to tackle the existential threat of a $31 trillion national debt and untenable deficits. Instead, we see punt after punt after punt because that’s a lot easier and more politically expedient than tightening our belts and acting responsibly.
If you feel powerless to stop all of this, it’s because you are. We all are. I despise having to be the bearer of more hopelessness but this isn’t one of the scenarios we can act against directly. Stolen elections have consequences. Now the best we can do is protect our own finances and brace for impact one way or another. Even a last-minute Uniparty Swamp deal will only mitigate the damage.
Stay frosty and be prepared. I’m not a financial advisor but I don’t think it’s a stretch to admit I’m doing like my economist friend and looking closely at gold and silver.
]]>The speculative answer to that question comes down to which economists you believe. They’re all over the board right now ranging from a default would be no big deal all the way to a default would cause economic carnage that could devolve into a full-blown economic collapse in a matter of months.
Yellen seems to be in the latter camp, saying, “In my assessment – and that of economists across the board – a U.S. default would generate an economic and financial catastrophe.”
Larry Kudlow, who famously doesn’t trust the Treasury Department for their “lack of credibility,” recently said he’s concerned Yellen may actually be correct this time. He even warned of Treasury borrowing from accounts, including retirement accounts, to keep things funded. According to Kudlow [emphasis added]:
“I know all these numbers are boring, but I hope they paint a picture and tell a story that an inflation-prone, stagnant economy bankrupts the country. That’s where the damaging debt comes from. Say it again: inflation-prone, stagnant economy and continued overspending. Now, to get even more boring – I’ve got tell you how exciting this is for me personally – there’s only so much the Treasury can borrow from the civil service retirement, the postal service retirement, the federal financing bank, the exchange stabilization fund, and the thrift savings plan. Actually, borrowing from these retirement plans is itself a pretty terrible idea, but that’s what happens when you have a malfunctioning economy with continued overspending and high inflation.”
The risks to retirement accounts are of particular interest to those who have not engaged in rollover or transfer moves to self-directed IRAs. Both Ira Bershatsky from Our Gold Guy and Jonathan Rose from Genesis Gold Group have been busy over the last few weeks helping Americans do so without the gimmicks or high-pressure sales tactics.
Yellen was joined by her advisors in warning that a default could decimate both the jobs market and the stock market. They ran a simulation in which the financial devastation was unprecedented.
“It finds that it could lead to a downturn as severe as the Great Recession. In its simulation, over 8 million Americans lose their jobs. Business and consumer confidence take a substantial hit. The value of the stock market is slashed by about 45 percent – wiping out years of retirement and other household savings,” she described.
Many economists are predicting that precious metals will skyrocket whether there’s a default or not, though both Bershatsky and Rose are hesitant to make such predictions.
“Precious metals are about being safe havens,” Rose said. “If the prices do go up, that’s great, but that’s not why people are having us transfer or rollover their retirement accounts into physical precious metal IRAs. Their concern is that whether there’s a default or not, the markets and the U.S. Dollar will suffer.”
It behooves Americans to learn what they can about physical precious metals before the Biden-Harris regime either makes a move or doesn’t in the next couple of weeks. Contact Genesis Gold Group or Our Gold Guy today for an honest assessment of your current situation.
(Note: The information provided by this website or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice. We may benefit from purchases you make through links on this page.)
]]>Most believe that when the deadline arrives, Congress and the White House will reach an agreement—even if it’s to kick the can down the road. As of now, Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen has set the deadline as June 1. There are still a few weeks left, and if history is any indication, no resolution is likely to be reached until the eleventh hour.
So far, institutional investors have not entirely balked at buying new issue U.S. Treasury bills. During the May 11 Treasury auction, four-week T-bills drew an annualized bond yield of 5.723 percent, a high but not exorbitant interest rate for bonds expiring on June 13. The eight-week T-bills were sold with an annualized yield of 4.793 percent by contrast.
Usually, longer duration paper will have higher yield. But this recent disconnect, where the four-week bills cost more than the either-week bills, reflects some concern that the June 13 T-bills won’t be paid on time while the July 11 paper will. This assumes a new debt deal will be in place by July. But even recognizing that, the 5.723 percent yield is no indication that any catastrophic debt default event is expected to pass.
What should investors do if there is indeed a debt default, or if the debt ceiling fight gets ugly and no deal is in sight?
Enter gold. Gold has approached its record high in recent weeks without much fanfare. That’s an impressive feat given that gold pays no yield and bond yields remain very high. The Gold spot price has climbed around 10 percent year to date through May 12.
There have been a few causes for gold’s recent rise. Global central banks bought 228 metric tons of gold during the first quarter of 2023, according to the World Gold Council. That’s after they collectively added 1,136 metric tons in 2022, a record year. Part of this demand has been driven by certain countries moving away from the U.S. dollar for global trade and potentially establishing a new common settlement currency.
Gold had a previous extraordinary run during the 1970s. President Richard Nixon ended the Bretton Woods system where the dollar converted into gold (at $35 per ounce) in 1971. Gold then eclipsed $850 by January 1980—a 33 fold increase. Gold served as an effective inflation hedge during a period of high inflation during the 1970s, when inflation averaged nearly 7 percent during the decade and culminated at 14 percent by 1980.
Silver, which typically outperforms gold in a bull market, increased by 7 percent to $25.01 year-to-date to May 12. Silver grew from $3 an ounce in the early 2000s and exploded to almost $50 in 2011. At around $25 per ounce today, it remains to be seen how silver will track gold and inflation going forward.
What else is in play?
Currently, the Swiss franc has proven itself to be the strongest currency and an FX haven in a volatile year for global foreign exchange market. During the last twelve months, the CHF gained more than 11 percent against the USD, while notching a four-decade high against its traditional currency haven competitor, the Japanese yen, by early May.
Global currency traders have been betting that the Bank of Japan will keep its ultra-loose monetary policy, which will keep the yen weak against a basket of global currencies. The Swiss National Bank, in the meantime, began hiking rates last year.
But is there value in holding Treasury bills or bonds?
Many investors say yes, despite the risk that America may not pay its bills on time.
Former PIMCO chief investment officer Bill Gross recently advised clients to take advantage of the one percent of extra annual yield on the shorter term T-bills despite default risk. The assumption is that a deal will definitely be reached even if the U.S. government can’t pay its obligations for a short period of time.
Article cross-posted from our premium news partners at The Epoch Times. Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
]]>“If Congress fails to do that, it really impairs our credit rating. We have to default on some obligation, whether it’s Treasuries or payments to Social Security recipients,” Yellen said on Friday in an interview with Bloomberg.
“That’s something America hasn’t done since 1789,” she continued, referring to a time when the new-born United States failed to pay back money it borrowed to finance the war against the British Empire. “And we shouldn’t start now. So we’ve not discussed what to do.”
When asked about the speculation that her department would prioritize payments of interest and principal on Treasury securities in a default scenario, Yellen said the White House has never reviewed or approved such a plan.
“My understanding—I was at the Fed in 2011—is that this plan was never presented to the president and never approved,” Yellen told Bloomberg. In 2011, she was serving as vice chair of the Federal Reverse.
When asked if she would now present that plan to prioritize Treasuries to the president, Yellen replied, “We are working full time to work with Congress to raise the debt ceiling. That’s where our focus is.”
The remarks comes after she argued that a U.S. government default might trigger a downgrade of its credit rating and weaken consumer confidence, similar to what happened in 2011.
“A default would threaten the gains that we’ve worked so hard to make over the past few years in our pandemic recovery. And it would spark a global downturn that would set us back much further,” Yellen said Thursday in Japan, where she was attending a meeting of finance chiefs and central bankers of G7 countries.
“It would also risk undermining U.S. global economic leadership and raise questions about our ability to defend our national security interests,” she added.
Yellen pointed to the 2011 debt ceiling crisis that prompted Standard & Poor’s to lower the United States’ long-held top-notch AAA sovereign credit rating to AA-plus. She warned that another downgrade would drive up interest rates for consumers and companies seeking loans.
“We could see a rise in interest rates drive up payments on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. We are already seeing spikes in interest rates for debt due around the date that the debt limit may bind,” she said.
“The U.S. Congress has raised or suspended the debt limit about 80 times since 1960. I urge it to act quickly to do so once again.”
Yellen’s comments echo those of President Joe Biden, who criticized Republican members of Congress for wanting to tie the debt limit increase to deficit-savings measures.
“They’re literally—not figuratively—holding the economy hostage by threatening to default on our nation’s debt,” Biden said Wednesday of what he called “extreme MAGA Republicans.”
Although the Biden administration insists that Congress pass a “clean” debt ceiling increase, almost every major debt ceiling agreement in the past 30 years had at least some kind of deficit-reduction law attached to it, including the 1993 Deficit Reduction Act under the Clinton administration, and the 2010 Pay-As-You-Go Act and the 2011 Budget Control Act under the Obama administration.
Republican congressional leaders remain cautious on defaulting national debt, as the nation’s top Republican, former President Donald Trump suggested that it’s better to let the U.S. government default than passing a budget that doesn’t include spending cuts.
“I say to the Republicans out there—Congressmen, Senators—if they don’t give you massive cuts, you’re going to have to do a default,” Trump said Wednesday during a town hall event hosted by CNN in New Hampshire.
“I don’t believe they’re going to do a default because I think the Democrats will absolutely cave because you don’t want to have that happen,” he told an undeclared voter in the audience. “But it’s better than what we’re doing right now, because we’re spending money like drunken sailors.”
Speaking the day after the Trump town hall, Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said his party is working to avoid a default, while Democrats are pushing the nation closer to one.
“The only thing I see right now is that the Republicans made sure default is not on the table. We’ve raised the debt limit,” he said, reported The Hill.
“The only person talking about default right now is President Biden. His actions, he’s ignored this problem, just like he’s ignored the border, that means more Americans are gonna die from fentanyl. You had 11,000 people just yesterday come across.”
Article cross-posted from our premium news partners at The Epoch Times. Image via Mark Warner, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
]]>The current sentiment toward prospects of a government default if the debt ceiling isn’t raised in time has many investors acting skittish. According to Filip De Mott from Business Insider, many investors are turning to gold ahead of the fallout of such an event which could take place in less than three weeks.
“Specific predictions about the market fallout from a US default are tricky as such an event is unprecedented,” he said. “But analysts say gold will still be viewed as a safe haven.”
That doesn’t mean precious metals investors need to hope for default. As analyst Christopher Louney and other economists have been saying for weeks, even a last-minute deal cut between Republicans and Democrats to raise the debt ceiling could be a boon for precious metals investors who act soon enough.
“Even assuming a deal is eventually reached, we wouldn’t disregard potential growing financial angst as the deadline approaches,” Louney said. “In such a scenario, gold looks like one of the few likely candidates that would bear the burden of resulting market flows.”
As a publication, we benefits when our readers purchase from either of our America First precious metals sponsors. They have been very busy in recent months and are expecting the next two weeks to see the flood gates opening as we approach either default or a last-minute deal to prevent default. This is why we’re encouraging people to contact Our Gold Guy for multiple purchase types of physical bullion or Genesis Gold Group for retirement account rollovers backed by physical gold and silver.
Investors are paying attention, not just to what’s happening in Washington DC but to the sentiment shifting across the world. Gold in particular seems to be of interest; even most central banks around the globe have been buying up as much of the precious metal as they can get over the last few months.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a $100 move in gold prices,” Oanda Senior Market Analyst Edward Moya said. “It’s a little too tough to call, but obviously that is a historic moment that would unravel large parts of Wall Street.”
The reason we selected one mid-sized precious metals company in Genesis and one smaller company in Our Gold Guy is because they are both rare in the way they do business. Unlike “Big Gold” players, neither Genesis nor Our Gold Guy attempt to con people into buying an extra $10,000 in “free” silver. It’s a marketing ploy that works well, which is why so many in “Big Gold” do it. Our partners have far too much integrity to engage in such shenanigans.
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, also expects that gold could climb in a default, saying the dollar could weaken and elevate it, given that the commodity is priced in dollars.
She also pointed to credit default swaps as a potential indicator, noting that they are correlated with gold. In April, one-year default swaps hit their highest since 2008.
“It would not be surprising to see gold as a safe haven refuge for those who are concerned that a default could, in fact, ensue,” Krosby said.
Even outside of a default scenario, gold has other tailwinds that potentially set it up for new record highs. Moya pointed to the continued buying of gold by global central banks, demand from China and India, and global rate easing, which helps gold because it’s a non-interest-bearing asset.
“So, it seems that there’s a good reason to anticipate gold could still outperform,” he said. “Will $2,100 happen this year? I think there’s still a good chance that that could happen, given the way the US economy — or the direction — the US economy is headed. So gold is probably going to do just fine, given all the risks that are on the table.”
Reach out to Our Gold Guy or Genesis to get started with protecting your life’s savings from government, central banks, and other nefarious forces.
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