Gold – American Conservative Movement https://americanconservativemovement.com American exceptionalism isn't dead. It just needs to be embraced. Sun, 10 Nov 2024 09:32:23 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.2 https://americanconservativemovement.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/cropped-America-First-Favicon-32x32.png Gold – American Conservative Movement https://americanconservativemovement.com 32 32 135597105 Fed’s Bad Moves Plus Trump’s Good Policies Could Yield $8,000 Gold Within This Bull Market Cycle https://americanconservativemovement.com/feds-bad-moves-plus-trumps-good-policies-could-yield-8000-gold-within-this-bull-market-cycle/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/feds-bad-moves-plus-trumps-good-policies-could-yield-8000-gold-within-this-bull-market-cycle/#respond Sun, 10 Nov 2024 09:30:51 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/feds-bad-moves-plus-trumps-good-policies-could-yield-8000-gold-within-this-bull-market-cycle/ The financial implications of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy are drawing significant attention, particularly regarding its potential to trigger a new crisis. Brien Lundin, Editor of Gold Newsletter and CEO of the New Orleans Investment Conference, raises concerns about the Fed’s management strategies.

“The Fed’s management of the price of money is going to create the next crisis, and when that happens, they are going to be forced to get back to zero interest rates,” he said.

Lundin emphasizes that recent cuts in interest rates—25 basis points last week following a 50-basis-point reduction in September—are merely indicative of a more extensive rate-cutting cycle. This trend is largely driven by the unsustainable costs associated with servicing national debt.

“Successive rate cuts are baked into the cake because of the tremendous cost of servicing the federal debt at these interest rate levels,” Lundin continued.

He further elaborates on impending challenges for corporations as they navigate their debt obligations amidst rising interest rates.

“The debt rate tsunami on a corporate level – we’re going to see a lot of debt resets coming up in the months just ahead.”

According to Lundin, companies already struggled with their debts during periods characterized by zero-interest rates; thus, maintaining solvency will become exceedingly difficult under current circumstances.

“Companies had trouble paying and servicing those debts in a zero-interest rate environment. They will find it nearly impossible to service those debts at current interest rates. The Fed really has to get rates down. The longer it waits, the more urgently it will have to do so at some point.”

Moreover, he suggests that negative interest rates may soon be necessary for addressing future economic challenges.

“My longer-term picture view is that we have to have negative real rates with debt loads this high. The cost of servicing that debt needs to be lower than the rate that currency is depreciating. Otherwise, the entire house of cards collapses.”

Jonathan Rose, CEO of Genesis Gold Group, added to the points by highlighting the election of Donald Trump.

“The Fed’s moves combined with President Trump’s fixes in the overall economy will be hugely beneficial for those holding precious metals,” he said. “I know some are projecting much higher numbers but we conservatively see $3,000 and then $4,000 ounces for gold on the horizon.”

In light of these forecasts and analysis regarding monetary policy adjustments and corporate indebtedness trends, Lundin anticipates gold prices soaring between $6,000-$8,000 within this bull market cycle based on historical trading patterns observed over time.

Additionally noted was gold’s recent divergence from its historically inverse relationship with both dollar value and bond yields—a development worth observing as market dynamics evolve amidst changing fiscal policies.

Americans who want to take advantage of physical precious metals ahead of the boom can learn more by requesting a free Wealth Protection Kit from Genesis Gold Group.

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Gold Skyrocketed 51% During Trump’s First Term — Will It Do the Same in His Second? https://americanconservativemovement.com/gold-skyrocketed-51-during-trumps-first-term-will-it-do-the-same-in-his-second/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/gold-skyrocketed-51-during-trumps-first-term-will-it-do-the-same-in-his-second/#respond Fri, 08 Nov 2024 02:08:22 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/gold-skyrocketed-51-during-trumps-first-term-will-it-do-the-same-in-his-second/ Now that Donald Trump is officially the President Elect, some are wondering if his presidency bodes ill for gold and silver prices. On the contrary, this is exactly what people “in the know” have been hoping for to keep precious metals prices moving forward just as they did in Trump’s first term.

After the initial post election drop, gold and silver prices started rising shortly after Trump’s victory.

“Considering everything we know, it’s ludicrous to think Trump will harm gold and silver prices,” said Jonathan Rose, CEO of Genesis Gold Group. “Gold rose 51% in his first term. I suspect they’ll rise even faster in a second term considering the state of geopolitics today.”

Precious metals have been consistently hitting record highs and the vast majority of analysts and bankers are predicting more of the same throughout 2025 now that Trump has won. Companies like BlackRock, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase are betting heavily on precious metals. Central banks have been buying up as much gold as they can for three years.

“The economic world is very different than it was in the past when Republican administrations hurt precious metals prices,” Rose continued. “If anything, I would expect prices to rise faster now that Trump has won because gold and silver are necessary to properly rebuild our economy with his policies.”

Genesis Gold Group is a faith-driven company that specializes in rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into a Genesis Gold IRA backed by physical precious metals. They can do so without tax-penalties and with little money out of pocket, allowing Americans to hedge their life’s savings against geopolitical turbulence.

With U.S. debt projected to hit $54 trillion by 2034, BRICS nations pushing for de-dollarization, and the possibility of war on multiple fronts, it behooves Americans to consider protecting their wealth or retirement with physical precious metals.

Genesis has put together a comprehensive Wealth Protection Kit and a Digital Dollar Defense Guide that give stellar insights about what to expect in both the near and distant futures. Request your copies today.

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JPMorgan Sees Strength in Both Gold and Crypto if Donald Trump Wins https://americanconservativemovement.com/jpmorgan-sees-strength-in-both-gold-and-crypto-if-donald-trump-wins/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/jpmorgan-sees-strength-in-both-gold-and-crypto-if-donald-trump-wins/#respond Sat, 02 Nov 2024 17:46:27 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/jpmorgan-sees-strength-in-both-gold-and-crypto-if-donald-trump-wins/ As the U.S. Presidential election approaches, with less than a week to go, investors are deliberating over which candidate may yield better outcomes for financial markets. Analysts at JPMorgan have indicated a favorable outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) and gold in the event of a Donald Trump victory.

According to JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, “Retail investors appear to be embracing the ‘debasement trade’ in an even stronger manner by buying Bitcoin and gold ETFs.”

hE also noted that this retail enthusiasm extends to meme and AI tokens, which have seen outperforming market caps.

Recent data highlights that Bitcoin has surged above $73,000, prompting significant inflows into U.S.-listed spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Over the past week alone, these ETFs increased their combined assets under management by more than $2.27 billion according to Farside Investors.

This marks the third-largest month of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs since their inception in January. The increase is attributed largely to retail interest seeking alternative assets as protection against currency debasement.

However, institutional investors have largely refrained from participating in this rally. The analysts remarked that institutional players paused their activity with Bitcoin futures recently based on cumulative open interest changes within CME contracts adjusted daily.

“Bitcoin futures have become rather overbought,” they warned. “Creating some vulnerability going forward.”

JPMorgan’s report also observed continued inflows into gold ETFs driven primarily by retail investors amidst a decline in institutional engagement with gold futures trading.

“Overall,” they concluded, “to the extent a Trump win inspires retail investors to not only buy risk assets but also further embrace the ‘debasement trade’, there could be additional upside for Bitcoin and gold prices.”

While Trump’s potential re-election is perceived as generally positive for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, its impact on gold may be more muted according to David Morrison from Trade Nation.

“Gold should continue to do its own thing,” he stated regarding current market conditions.

Morrison elaborated further: “It is currently in a bull market and this is unlikely to change under either candidate.”

He emphasized factors such as lower interest rates and declining dollar values that can bolster gold prices while noting little influence either candidate might exert over Federal Reserve policies—even despite Trump’s comments advocating rate cuts during his tenure.

With Fed chair Jerome Powell maintaining his position without any immediate threat of dismissal—despite Trump’s previous attempts at pressure—Morrison highlighted underlying bullish fundamentals supporting bullion investments amid rising geopolitical tensions alongside central bank purchasing activities primarily from nations like China rather than traditional Western central banks such as those represented by Federal Reserve or ECB actions.

He cautioned about absent retail demand during recent rallies but suggested that igniting such demand could lead toward substantial price gains moving forward.

Nicky Shiels from MKS PAMP provided insights suggesting fluctuating dynamics surrounding future valuations: “Gold’s trajectory into yearend is quite binary and contingent on both election outcomes.”

“The case for Gold at $2500 or $3000 can be made,” she said regarding possible price movements influenced heavily through various economic scenarios unfolding post-election day along with domestic data releases impacting Fed outlooks significantly moving ahead.”

For practical investor strategies concerning precious metals given uncertainty ahead; Shiels advised caution while remaining engaged: “Stay lightly long…but keep dry powder ready.”

Article generated from corporate media reports.

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Yes, Precious Metals Will Likely Skyrocket After the Election https://americanconservativemovement.com/yes-precious-metals-will-likely-skyrocket-after-the-election/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/yes-precious-metals-will-likely-skyrocket-after-the-election/#respond Fri, 01 Nov 2024 21:46:14 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/yes-precious-metals-will-likely-skyrocket-after-the-election/ Government will grow quickly under Democrats or slower under Republicans, but either way the U.S. government and its expenditures are expected to grow after the election.

Kamala Harris is a Big Gov stereotypical Democrat who will continuing the ballooning of budgets, deficits, and debt. Donald Trump was a populist president in his first term, and while he fought government regulations and bureaucracy, recovering from the last four years makes it unlikely that spending will be reduced in his second term.

In other words, we can expect the national debt to continue to grow unabated. It’s just a question of how fast.

With de-dollarization progressing worldwide, even a return to stronger fiscal policies under Trump is unlikely to assuage the rush by governments and central banks to own gold and silver. As for Harris, it is conceivable that the U.S. Dollar could collapse if she continues down the path of the current administration.

According to Mint:

Looking ahead, prices may remain elevated as the US presidential election outcome, regardless of who wins, is likely to further support the ongoing rally in gold prices, said domestic brokerage firm Elara Capital.

The brokerage noted that the 2024 US elections are shaping up to be one of the closest in modern times, and regardless of the outcome, the US fiscal outlook is expected to worsen. As per the IMF, the fiscal deficit for the US is expected to be higher than that of the emerging markets in the next five years.

Then, there’s the likelihood of chaos engulfing the United States in the days, weeks, or even months after the election. There has never been a more polarizing election in the nation’s history. Mass violence or even domestic terrorism are expected following a Trump victory. If Harris wins, the turmoil will be directly economic as companies brace for another four years of rampant inflation, low consumer sentiment, and an ongoing border invasion.

“It behooves Americans to protect their life’s savings with physical precious metals,” said Jonathan Rose, CEO of Genesis Gold Group. “Gold and silver are, in my humble opinion, the best way to do that and the time to get in is before the next big price spike following the election.”

Even the most conservative projections for gold and silver point to stability that belies the current economic turmoil. As Mint continued:

The growing fiscal pressure, particularly if either political party secures sweeping control, could result in a significantly higher deficit. Elara Capital notes that the Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a more hawkish stance under the new government—more so in the event of a Republican sweep—unless clear growth risks emerge.

In this context, gold prices are expected to benefit, serving as a hedge against both fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties. Elara Capital forecasts a 10% upside for gold over the next 12 months, highlighting contributing factors such as rising interest payments on US debt, escalating fiscal pressures, and the impact of increasing USD yields.

Genesis Gold IRA’s produced by this faith-driven company allow Americans to own physical precious metals by rolling over or transferring their retirement accounts. That means no tax impact and minimal cash out of pocket.

Americans who want to learn more about protecting their wealth or retirement with physical precious metals should request their free, definitive Wealth Protection Kit from Genesis Gold Group.

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Will Gold and Silver Prices Drop if Donald Trump Wins? https://americanconservativemovement.com/will-gold-and-silver-prices-drop-if-donald-trump-wins/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/will-gold-and-silver-prices-drop-if-donald-trump-wins/#respond Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:22:18 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/will-gold-and-silver-prices-drop-if-donald-trump-wins/ It’s well-established among economists that if Kamala Harris wins the presidential election, gold and silver will likely shoot up in value. But what if Donald Trump wins? With his chances of victory increasing, should gold and silver owners sell now because values will drop during his second term?

“Considering everything we know, it’s ludicrous to think Trump will harm gold and silver prices,” said Jonathan Rose, CEO of Genesis Gold Group. “Gold rose 51% in his first term. I suspect they’ll rise even faster in a second term considering the state of geopolitics today.”

Precious metals have been consistently hitting record highs this year and the vast majority of analysts and bankers are predicting more of the same in 2025 regardless of who wins the election. Companies like BlackRock, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase are betting heavily on precious metals. Central banks have been buying up as much gold as they can for three years.

“The economic world is very different than it was in the past when Republican administrations hit precious metals prices,” Rose continued. “If anything, I would expect prices to rise faster following the election because of the turmoil that will hit the nation.”

Genesis Gold Group is a faith-driven company that specializes in rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into a Genesis Gold IRA backed by physical precious metals. They can do so without tax-penalties and often with no money out of pocket, allowing Americans to hedge their life’s savings against geopolitical turbulence.

With U.S. debt projected to hit $54 trillion by 2034, BRICS nations pushing for de-dollarization, and the possibility of war on multiple fronts, it behooves Americans to consider protecting their wealth or retirement with physical precious metals.

Genesis has put together a comprehensive Wealth Protection Kit and a Digital Dollar Defense Guide that give stellar insights about what to expect in both the near and distant futures. Request your copies today.

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Even Globalist Bankers at UBS Are Bullish on Gold for 2025 — Build Your Position Tax-Free With Your Retirement https://americanconservativemovement.com/even-globalist-bankers-at-ubs-are-bullish-on-gold-for-2025-build-your-position-tax-free-with-your-retirement/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/even-globalist-bankers-at-ubs-are-bullish-on-gold-for-2025-build-your-position-tax-free-with-your-retirement/#respond Wed, 23 Oct 2024 06:15:02 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/even-globalist-bankers-at-ubs-are-bullish-on-gold-for-2025-build-your-position-tax-free-with-your-retirement/ When multinational investment bank UBS Group makes statements about their positions, savvy investors take note. Unlike their counterparts at JPMorgan Chase, UBS focuses on privacy and security which compels them to play their cards closer to the vest.

That’s why announcing their stance on gold is such a big deal. This time, it happens to match the stance held by JP Morgan Chase.

“We remain bullish on gold here,” said Joni Teves, Precious Metals Strategist at UBS. “We think the outlook is quite positive heading into next year. Easing by the Fed continues to be supportive for gold, and fundamentals continue to be positive as well. We expect central bank buying to continue, and physical demand we think will remain resilient even as prices continue to rally.”

As the largest private bank in the world with over $5 trillion under management, they are extremely cautious with their recommendations. Even a slight error can cost them and their clients billions, so when they come out as bullish on gold despite current prices already beating projections, it’s noteworthy.

“We’re definitely taking note and so are our clients,” said Jonathan Rose, CEO of Genesis Gold Group. “They’re rushing to make moves with their retirement accounts sooner rather than later because the longer they wait, the higher the prices for gold and silver.”

Rose’s company specializes in rolling over or transferring current and past retirement accounts into Genesis Gold IRAs backed by gold and silver.

When asked about physical precious metals versus other types of investments common in retirement accounts, Teves said it comes down to risk.

“Some investors, especially [those] that are concerned about credit risks, tend to hold physical gold,” she said. “The choice of exposure really depends on an investor’s risk appetite as well as mandate, so it depends on the type of investor.”

For American retirees, the safe haven of physical precious metals can be extremely appealing during the current economic crunch. Learn how Genesis Gold Group can help build a position in gold and silver by requesting their Wealth Protection Kit.

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Update for Gold and Silver https://americanconservativemovement.com/update-for-gold-and-silver/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/update-for-gold-and-silver/#respond Mon, 21 Oct 2024 06:07:06 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/update-for-gold-and-silver/ (Lew Rockwell)—Since December 2015 when gold’s value measured in fiat currencies began to rise, gold priced in the four major western currencies has been consistently hitting new high ground. Put another way, these currencies measured in gold have all more than halved, with the yen having lost two-thirds.

We can say this in the knowledge that over long periods the purchasing power of gold is remarkably stable, while those of fiat currencies are not. This is why everyone should examine their exposure to credit, which is always fiat usually with systemic risk thrown in (unless you hold cash notes). But we are all human, and from time to time worry that the headline values of our gold or silver might fall and we have missed a selling opportunity.

Having broken into new high ground, there is no doubt that there’s much speculation embedded in gold and silver prices. While we should not tie events together to tightly, this build up has been ahead of the BRICS summit in Kazan next week, with speculation that a new trade settlement currency backed by gold might be announced. Well, President Putin said on Friday that “talk of creating a single currency for the BRICS grouping was premature”. It is not ruled out, only it is not for this agenda

That would suggest that this coming week will see profit-taking in gold and silver and perhaps a shake-out of speculative longs as their stops are triggered on Comex. But Putin made his statement deferring the introduction of a new currency on Friday, after which gold and silver soared higher. It was probably wrong therefore to associate rising prices for gold and silver with speculation about a new BRICS currency.

The other material statement was that Putin was open to admitting new members. A few weeks ago, I suggested that this could be accelerated by creating a class of associate members as a stepping stone to full membership and I would take this to now be the case. Could that have been behind the surge in gold and silver?

We cannot know. But looking at last night’s Commitment of Traders figures for last Tuesday and adjusting for Open Interest since then it is clear that gold is now in overbought territory, but could go further.

A consolidation here would be the healthy outcome, at least from a technical point of view. We can bet that central banks and other statist interests would welcome the opportunity to pick up some cheap bullion, underwriting the market. And recently, Russia announced that it was in the market for silver bullion. That’s our last chart.

I wouldn’t rule out a back-test, maybe to $30.50 or so. But the bullish message of the chart is clear. And even that might not happen.

Reprinted with permission from MacleodFinance Substack.

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Bank of America Sees Gold Breaking $3,000 Sooner Rather Than Later https://americanconservativemovement.com/bank-of-america-sees-gold-breaking-3000-sooner-rather-than-later/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/bank-of-america-sees-gold-breaking-3000-sooner-rather-than-later/#respond Sun, 20 Oct 2024 21:20:41 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/bank-of-america-sees-gold-breaking-3000-sooner-rather-than-later/ Gold has recently experienced a remarkable resurgence, setting record highs and drawing renewed attention from both retail and institutional investors. This shift comes as traditional safe-haven assets are increasingly perceived to be under threat.

Strategists at Bank of America suggest that investors, including central banks, should consider reallocating into gold as a means of protecting wealth against persistent inflation and the risks associated with excessive fiat currency creation and government borrowing.

“Gold looks to be the last ‘safe-haven’ asset standing, incentivizing traders including central banks to increase exposure,” said a Bank of America strategist.

As U.S. debt continues its upward trajectory, there are concerns regarding Treasury supply risks. Analysts warn that higher interest rate payments relative to GDP will elevate gold’s appeal in the coming years.

The financial landscape is not solely about U.S. spending patterns; analysts have referenced insights from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which anticipates global spending could reach 7% to 8% of GDP annually by 2030.

“Ultimately, something has to give: if markets become reluctant to absorb all the debt and volatility increases, gold may be the last perceived safe-haven asset standing.”

The analysts elaborated on how “central banks, in particular, could further diversify their currency reserves.”

Individual investors, especially retirees with their life’s savings locked in retirement accounts, have been increasingly interested in moving their money to gold and silver.

“The general sentiment is that the election will spike precious metals prices,” said Jonathan Rose, CEO of Genesis Gold Group. “If Trump wins, there will be short term chaos from those who hate him. If Harris wins, there will be long-term instability due to her poor economic plans.

“Either way, gold and silver are poised to keep going up for the foreseeable future.”

This is arguably the biggest immediate reason why so many, including Bank of America analysts, believe gold will continue to rise despite being at record levels already. Between election turmoil and an unsustainable national debt, physical precious metals are arguably the most attractive form of investment available today.

“The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget notes that the national debt is projected to reach a new record high as a share of the economy only three years from now, well within the next presidential term, pushing up interest rate payments as a share of GDP,” they said. “In turn, this makes gold an attractive asset, so we reaffirm our $3,000/oz target,”

Genesis is among the many companies in the United States that rolls over or transfers retirement accounts into IRAs backed by physical precious metals. What differentiates them is their adherence to a faith-driven style of business. This is why their margins and fees are far below the industry average.

“Just as we recommend our clients focus on the long-term, so too do we emphasize lifetime relationships with our clients instead of ‘big hits’ that drive heavy profits for other precious metals companies,” Rose said. “We’re content with win-win engagements so we can all find a safe haven with precious metals together.”

Genesis offers an exclusive Wealth Protection Kit as well as a free, definitive gold guide. Reach out to them today to learn more.

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Hedge Fund CIO: “After the Last Disillusioned Gold Bulls Sold Their Final Ounce, Gold Started Rallying… And Has Not Looked Back” https://americanconservativemovement.com/hedge-fund-cio-after-the-last-disillusioned-gold-bulls-sold-their-final-ounce-gold-started-rallying-and-has-not-looked-back/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/hedge-fund-cio-after-the-last-disillusioned-gold-bulls-sold-their-final-ounce-gold-started-rallying-and-has-not-looked-back/#respond Mon, 14 Oct 2024 05:06:54 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/hedge-fund-cio-after-the-last-disillusioned-gold-bulls-sold-their-final-ounce-gold-started-rallying-and-has-not-looked-back/ (Zero Hedge)—By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“Let me start with the psychology that governed the gold market for years,” I said. It was our IC meeting and the topic of gold’s recent outperformance versus bitcoin came up. “When Bernanke unleashed QE during the GFC, a lot of very smart people rushed to hedge themselves against a massive monetary inflation. Gold was an obvious hedge, and the Baby Boomers were in their investing prime back then. They felt highly exposed to an inflating-away of their life savings. They already owned homes. Many bought gold. Some bought far too much.”

“Republicans prevented Obama from the wild stimulus spending he sought. And China’s deflation-exporting economy was still being brought online in the aftermath of its WTO ascendance. Plus, Beijing pumped it up through massive subsidies/stimulus. There were surely other reasons why inflation didn’t take off back then. Expectations remained generally stable. And despite Europe’s response to an existential sovereign debt crisis, and Draghi’s 2012 commitment to do “whatever it takes”, the Germans never let spending get out of control.

“Gold peaked in the summer of 2011 at over $2500/oz and turned lower. By 2015, it had fallen roughly 40%, back to the $1400 level it hit in March 2008. All these Baby Boomers with gold buried in their backyards were gutted. They prayed that if they ever got back to the highs, they’d sell. We’ve all prayed like that. Every one of us. Those who held until July 2020 got the chance to sell again near the 2011 highs at $2400. Covid stimulus sparked that rally. Some sold. Gold fell. The holders begged forgiveness. Then sold. Gold fell 30% over 2yrs.

“Baby Boomer bulls eventually lost faith. Many needed cash, they were retiring. Some got bearish gold and pointed to the EU’s confiscation of Russia’s foreign reserves following the Ukraine invasion. “If gold couldn’t rally on that, then would it ever,” they asked. The last disillusioned bulls sold their final ounce. Then gold started rallying. It has not looked back. That’s what can happen to a market once you clean out the remaining stale positions. A clean market can really move, given a clear fundamental catalyst; gold has at least two.

“The confiscation of Russian assets means governments will increasingly diversify their foreign reserves into non-sovereign assets. Gold is one. And now that China is committing to stimulus, every major economic zone appears to be doing the opposite of austerity. So, in a world of potentially infinite fiat, scarce assets should appreciate. Gold has. It’s +40% over the past 12mths. Bitcoin is +134% over that period. But for the past 7mths, Bitcoin has chopped around in a 30% range (13% below all-time highs), while gold continued upward. Why?

When Bitcoin hit $59k in Apr 2021, the bullishness was insane. It fell nearly 50% through that summer and made new highs around $65k in Nov 2021. Then it collapsed to the $15k area on the FTX failure. A material portion of bulls who endured that net worth crash prayed to God that they’d sell some, most, maybe even all (probably not all, this is crypto) if they ever got back to the highs. Bitcoin hit $72.75k this Mar. There’s been selling into every market rally since, even as clear fundamental catalysts appear (the same ones as for gold). And as this happens, market positioning gets cleaner.

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Central Banks Are Buying Gold: What You Need to Know https://americanconservativemovement.com/central-banks-are-buying-gold-what-you-need-to-know/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/central-banks-are-buying-gold-what-you-need-to-know/#respond Sun, 13 Oct 2024 20:31:02 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/central-banks-are-buying-gold-what-you-need-to-know/ (The Epoch Times)—It is not only consumers rushing to the local Costco and neighborhood metals dealer to wipe out their inventories of gold bars and coins.

Since the global financial crisis of 2008–09, central banks have been significant gold buyers, and their investments are paying off. These institutions are striking gold as prices have notched more than two dozen record settlements this year.

The metal has rallied about 30 percent in 2024, rising to as high as $2,708 per ounce. Its sister metal commodity, silver, has also performed well so far this year, surging 32 percent, to $32 an ounce.

Precious metal prices have rocketed on several factors.

Over the last 12 months, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the greenback against a basket of currencies, has slumped 3.5 percent. A weaker buck is good for dollar-denominated commodities because it makes it cheaper for foreign investors to purchase.

Despite its recent uptick, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has weakened by a full percent since November 2023 on Federal Reserve policy expectations. This has diminished the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Financial markets have witnessed an invasion of gold bugs, bulls that have ushered in precious metal euphoria to the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

But central banks have ostensibly been ahead of the pack.

According to data compiled by the World Gold Council, central banks acquired 1,037 tons of gold last year, the second-highest annual purchase in history. This came one year after the institutions purchased a record high of 1,082 tons.

In August, central banks reported net purchases of eight tons, led by the National Bank of Poland, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, and the Reserve Bank of Turkey.

But while central-bank purchases have significantly increased over the last three years, this has been a long-term trend, says Joseph Cavatoni, a senior market strategist at the World Gold Council.

“It’s a 14-year trend that’s basically been playing out since the global financial crisis,” Cavatoni told The Epoch Times.

“[There] has been a real desire to diversify their holdings and add the component of gold to the portfolio to achieve a better performance outcome.”

Though purchasing sizes have slowed recently, central banks anticipate adding more gold to their reserves in the coming years.

A 2024 World Gold Council survey showed that 81 percent of central banks will increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months. Looking ahead to the next five years, 66 percent of central banks think gold’s share of their overall reserves will be “moderately higher.”

In today’s “increasingly uncertain global economic environment,” the trends make sense, says Matthew Jones, a precious metals analyst at Solomon Global.

“Central banks are increasing their gold purchases as a strategy to diversify reserves, hedge against inflation, protect themselves from geopolitical risks, and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar,” Jones told The Epoch Times. “Gold’s historical role as a stable and universally accepted asset makes it an attractive option, especially in an increasingly uncertain global economic environment.”

The U.S. dollar hegemony might play a vital role in central banks’ ferocious gold appetite.

Gold in a Reforming Global Monetary Order

Changes to the international monetary order have been unfolding, with central banks gradually transitioning away from the U.S. dollar.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves data, the U.S. dollar share of worldwide foreign-exchange reserves is 58 percent, down from 72 percent in 2000.

“Recent data from the IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) point to an ongoing gradual decline in the dollar’s share of allocated foreign reserves of central banks and governments,” IMF officials said in a report this past summer. “Strikingly, the reduced role of the U.S. dollar over the last two decades has not been matched by increases in the shares of the other ‘big four’ currencies—the euro, yen, and pound.”

Like gold-buying, the de-dollarization campaign has been ongoing since the Great Recession, kicking into overdrive after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. This initiative involves countries trimming their reliance on the greenback as a reserve currency.

Leaders have been responding to the potential dollar weaponization, says Vijay Singh, the managing partner and chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital.

After the postwar Bretton Woods conference, the U.S. dollar essentially became the world reserve currency, pegging every other currency to the buck. As a result, the federal government has exploited the U.S. dollar as a tool to bolster Washington’s foreign policy, which was on full display after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The U.S.-led Western alliance froze about half of the Russian central bank’s more than $600 billion in assets. It limited the Kremlin’s access to the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) payment system, the financial artery for financial communication.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that cutting Russia out of SWIFT would trigger “unintended consequences.”

“I don’t think anybody likes to be bullied,” Singh told The Epoch Times. “If you look at a lot of our foreign policy, it does involve kind of using the dollar strength globally against countries that they’re not going to forget.”

Singh says several formal efforts are underway to sidestep the U.S. dollar, including expanding the coalition of anti-dollar developing nations known as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa).

In August 2023, the group officially invited six other nations to join the bloc: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), though Saudi Arabia has still yet to join. Nineteen other countries have expressed interest in becoming members.

“We value the interest of other countries in building a partnership with BRICS,” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said in a statement. “We have tasked our foreign ministers to further develop the BRICS partner country model and a list of prospective partner countries and report by the next Summit.”

A part of the organization’s objective is to bolster bilateral trade settled in local currencies, such as the Chinese yuan, the Brazilian real, and the Indian rupee.

In the last year, many media reports have shown that countries are creating arrangements to complete bilateral trade in local currencies.

Iran and Russia finalized an agreement in December to trade in their local currencies rather than the U.S. dollar, according to Tehran’s state media. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk confirmed this past spring that 92 percent of trade settlements between Moscow and Beijing are conducted in rubles and yuan. India and Indonesia inked a deal in March to trade in local currencies.

Over the years, rampant speculation has been that BRICS members would establish a gold-backed reserve currency. To date, nothing has materialized, and experts are skeptical that it will happen anytime soon.

While discussions are likely occurring, “it’s really not a quick” fix to displace the U.S. dollar, according to Cavatoni.

“It’s quite a bit of work to get that done,” he said.

“I think there’s still the necessity for dollars to be in the middle of the mix, and there’s not a lot of viable alternatives to start a new currency, to get something that’s completely independent, to have it embedded in clearing and have it embedded in trade settlements.”

While gold is a politically acceptable instrument to nations outside the Western alliance, there are broader challenges, say State Street economists.

“Gold reserves are simply not ‘user-friendly’ in large quantities,” they wrote in a paper. “Gold needs to be stored domestically and requires an international transaction to convert it into foreign currency for payment purposes.”

“In brief,” they concluded, “gold performs well on safety but falls short on liquidity.”

A more realistic proposal would be tying gold to a stablecoin, Vingh says. This would consist of a cryptocurrency in which the digital asset’s value is pegged to a reference asset, such as the U.S. dollar or gold.

“I think that’s actually more workable, and what they might do,” he stated. “There’s so much flexibility involved with these stablecoins, theoretically.”

The next BRICS Summit later this month will take place in Kazan, Russia, and might rekindle murmurs about de-dollarization and a gold-backed currency.

Gold Prices in 2025

Will gold extend its record run into 2025? Financial experts agree that worldwide markets should brace for elevated prices.

Goldman Sachs Research forecasters prognosticate that gold should hover around $2,700 by early next year, “buoyed by interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and gold purchases by emerging market central banks.”
“The metal could get an additional boost if the U.S. imposes new financial sanctions or if concerns mount about the U.S. debt burden,” they said.

“Gold is our strategists’ preferred near-term long (the commodity they most expect to go up in the short term), and it’s also their preferred hedge against geopolitical and financial risks.”

Jones believes gold investors will “enjoy this current bull” entering 2025 and target a spot value approaching $2,800 in early 2025.

Supporting factors will be the same as they have been over the last couple of years.

“I think we will enjoy this current bull run as we enter into 2025 driven by: continued demand from central banks (in particular the central banks from the BRICS nations as they reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar), persistent or increasing inflation, geopolitical uncertainty (a soft euphemism for war), currency diversification, and the risk of an economic slowdown or recession,” Jones noted.

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