Mines around the world are ceasing operations or halting construction projects in response to the falling demand, such as a $1.3 billion plant in North Carolina operated by Albemarle. which announced that it was deferring spending on the project amid the market turmoil, according to the WSJ The total market share of EVs rose from 3.1% in January 2023 to 3.6% in December 2023, while the share of U.S. vehicle inventory grew from 2.8% to 5.7% in that same time frame as demand fails to keep up with supply.

Over the last few years, global mineral producers have ramped up mining operations in an attempt to capitalize on the emerging EV market, but consumers have declined to adopt EVs at the rate producers were expecting, leading to rare minerals flooding the market and driving down prices, according to the WSJ. The market for metals is often subject to boom-and-bust cycles due to unpredictable demand and the slow speed at which mines can be brought into operation.

The price of lithium is down around 90% since the beginning of last year, and the price of nickel has been cut in half in that same time frame, according to the WSJ. A mine on the French Pacific island of New Caledonia recently suspended operations, despite providing more than 6% of the world’s nickel supply.

A scramble to secure strategic minerals such as copper, cobalt, lithium, and nickel could increase price pressures and raise the cost of the climate transition, IMF economists write in the latest issue of F&D. https://t.co/X72oppqbAe pic.twitter.com/hoqLoenEdb

— IMF (@IMFNews) February 17, 2024

The decline in mineral demand is particularly dire to the Australian mining industry and economy in general, with the country’s government recently designating nickel as a critical mineral to give corporations access to government grants in order to provide some stimulus to struggling companies, according to the WSJ. The collapse of mineral prices has led to a loss of more than one-fifth of Australia’s mine supply.

China controls around 87% of the world’s rare earth mineral refining capacity, leading the U.S. to attempt to subsidize projects outside of China to secure access to the resources. The Biden administration has included provisions in EV tax credits that require a certain percentage of minerals not to be from a foreign entity of concern like China to be eligible.

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(Article cross-posted from Natural News)

In a report recently published by BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, the insatiable demand of China for lithium primarily driven by the EV market is expected to grow by an average of 20.4 percent per annum between 2023 and 2032. However, the lithium supply is projected to increase by only six percent over the same period.

Meaning to say, the large gap cannot even meet a third of the anticipated demand despite China being the third largest producer of lithium worldwide. (Related: Lithium supply not large enough to meet ambitious global EV deadlines, mining CEO warns.)

Meanwhile, the World Economic Forum (WEF) predicts global lithium demand to surge from 540,000 metric tons in 2021 to over 3 million metric tons by 2030, primarily due to the rising popularity of electric vehicles. S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts EV sales to reach 13.8 million units this year, with expectations of surpassing 30 million units by 2030.

Experts like Corinne Blanchard, the director of lithium and clean equity research at Deutsche Bank, anticipate a “modest deficit of around 40,000 to 60,000 tons of lithium carbonate by the end of 2025 and a more alarming potential deficit of 768,000 tons in 2030.

Incoming lithium shortage expected to have a domino effect

The automotive industry is now bracing itself for a potentially severe shock of lithium shortage, given that lithium serves as a critical component in powering EV batteries.

According to Refinitiv data, there are only 101 lithium mines worldwide to date. Gill Pratt, the chief scientist of Toyota, stressed that building new lithium mines can take decades.

Allan Pedersen, the director of energy transition and battery raw materials research at Wood Mackenzie, echoes the argument of Pratt. Pedersen said: “The main risks [are] likely to come from delays in commissioning of new projects and delays in permitting of new assets.”

Susan Zou, vice president of energy research firm Rystad Energy, expects a substantial increase in lithium mine supply by 30 percent to 40 percent per annum in 2023 and 2024. However, she warned of potential regional supply imbalances, especially in the U.S. and Europe, where mining and processing capacities may struggle to meet EV battery demand.

Zou also pointed out that the incoming global lithium shortfall at the end of the decade could pose potential threats to the supply chain and cause a spike in lithium prices. In turn, such price increase could raise battery production costs and spell trouble not only for automakers but also for buyers with limited budgets for EVs. In short, the incoming lithium shortage is expected to have a worldwide domino effect.

Learn more about the global supply chain at SupplyChainWarning.com. Watch this documentary explaining the dark side of the green energy transition.

This video is from the channel Divide Et Impera on Brighteon.com.

More related stories:

• They will be RARER soon: Rare earth mineral supply for wind power and EVs will fall 246,000 tons short by 2040.
• EVs are NOT zero emissions: It takes 500,000 pounds of earth material to build a single 1,000-pound battery.
• LITHIUM mining for electric vehicles is incredibly destructive to the environment and about as far from “green” as you can imagine.
• Lithium shortage spells disaster for Biden admin’s ill-fated crusade against gasoline-powered vehicles.
• GREEN SHORTAGE: Lack of lithium preventing Indonesia from becoming a global hub for EVs.

Sources include: 

• CNBC.com
• MSN.com
• Brighteon.com

One might think this would put a wrench in the climate change agenda, that the powers-that-be and their minions like Joe Biden and Gavin Newsom would have to rethink their machinations. Nope. In fact, one could argue that they’re moving forward with their climate change fearmongering knowing that the only way it could possibly work is if their ultimate goals are achieved.

What are their ultimate goals? If you thought it had anything to do with the environment, think again. Their ultimate goal is to make personal vehicles obsolete. They will eventually outlaw gas-fueled cars altogether. At the same time, they will make buying electric vehicles cost-prohibitive for all but the very wealthy. For the rest of us, they expect us to move to 15-minute cities, use public transportation, and rely on electric bicycles.

And they’re already in the process of planting the seeds so they can normalize this draconian mindset. According to Scientific American [emphasis added]:

The transition to electric vehicles could lead to lithium shortages unless the United States and other countries overhaul their transportation systems and move away from private cars as the primary means of travel.

Simply converting the existing U.S. car fleet to battery-powered electric vehicles, for example, would require three times more lithium by 2050 than the world currently produces, according to new research from the University of California, Davis, and the Climate and Community Project.

A spike in lithium demand could cause other problems too, such as greater environmental damage and worsening international tension over supplies of the metal, which is primarily mined outside the United States.

The report argues that broader changes in the transportation system, combined with intensive recycling of lithium batteries, could drastically cut into lithium demand. Some suggestions include greater use of mass transit, denser urban development and micromobility solutions such as electric bikes and scooters.

On today’s episode of The JD Rucker Show, I broke down what this really means and why their endgame is to get rid of all personal cars other than the ones the elites own. I highlighted how the three suggestions made in the article are all tied to The Great Reset. Greater use of mass transit is clearly a goal of the powers-that-be who can more easily control our movements by stuffing us in trains and buses like sardines.

“Denser urban development” has always been a goal of theirs. They want us in overcrowded cities so they can keep tabs on the masses. Moreover, they want these to be “15-minute cities” so the people can walk everywhere and not notice how immobile they really are.

As for electric bikes and scooters, the implication is obvious. While they prance around in their super-expensive electric vehicles free from the elements and safe from the public, the rest of us are supposed to zip around like 5th graders on crowded streets in the rain, heat, or snow.

The push for electric vehicles is completely untenable if we assume their intention is for everyone to drive them. If we adjust our thinking to match reality, we’ll realize they don’t want us driving at all.

Alternative Video Sources:

After Admitting Fatal Flaw in Electric Vehicles, the REAL Green Car Agenda Is Coming Out https://t.co/kOhjoWZTij

— JD Rucker (@JDRucker) February 6, 2023

Critics say the scenario would increase U.S. energy dependence on a hostile power – one accused of using forced labor in the manufacture of both lithium batteries and solar panels – and undercuts the Biden administration’s emphasis on domestic sourcing of green energy.

“We need the finished product here,” said Glenn Miller, a retired professor of environmental science at the University of Nevada, Reno, who has spent decades in mining chemistry.  “I would hope there is an advantage to taking that lithium and shipping it 200 miles south to process it [rather] than shipping it around the world. We should all be troubled by China’s control of [minerals]. Why can’t we do this?”

While the United States has ample supplies of lithium, it currently falls short on the capacity to process it into a usable form, meaning that the $7 billion in taxpayer money invested in the nation’s battery supply chain will have to include a foreign component. That is almost certain to include China, which produces 79% of the world’s lithium-ion batteries.

Lithium has taken the spotlight in Biden’s energy plan, since it is a key element needed to produce batteries for electric vehicles and solar panel storage. The administration acknowledges the lithium processing challenge – tacitly – in a June 2021 report produced by the U.S. Department of Energy. “The nation would benefit greatly from development and growth of cost-competitive domestic materials processing for lithium-battery materials,” the report reads.

Department of Energy spokesman David Mayorga did not respond to a list of questions on domestic lithium.

The White House in March issued an order invoking the Defense Production Act, a 1950’s-era law meant to prioritize production of materials in the name of national security. The action allows the federal government to direct taxpayer funds to private companies to extract more lithium in the U.S. – including foreign-based interests.

Prominent in the initiative is Canadian-based Lithium Americas, a publicly traded group whose largest shareholder is Chinese-owned lithium mining giant Ganfeng Lithium, which is currently under investigation in China for alleged insider trading.

Lithium Americas is seeking to mine lithium from Thacker Pass, an 18,000-acre wilderness area on the Nevada-Oregon border. If the mining is approved, Thacker Pass would join a mine at Silver Peak outside of Tonopah, Nevada, as one of the only active lithium mines in the U.S. The company projects it will yield 80,000 tons of lithium a year, which would make it one of the largest lithium mines in the world, producing a quarter of the world’s demand.

Lithium Americas’ local company, Lithium Nevada, has been approved to receive Nevada tax abatements worth $8.5 million. And the parent company has applied for a grant through the Department of Energy, including money that Biden made available via the Defense Production Act.

But there is no promise from recipients of tax breaks and grants that the end product will benefit the U.S. In a statement to RCI, Lithium Americas’ CEO Jonathan Evans downplayed the company’s China connection and skirted the question of whether the mined lithium will go to U.S. partners for processing.

“While Lithium Americas is partnered with Ganfeng Lithium at Cauchari Olaroz in Argentina, [Lithium Americas] owns 100% of Thacker Pass and has 100% of the offtake uncommitted,” Evans said in the statement. “We remain devoted to producing a domestic supply of essential lithium from our Thacker Pass project focused on selling to U.S. focused customers to strengthen the domestic battery supply chain.”

Daniel Simmons, a former assistant secretary who focused on renewables at the Energy Department during the Trump administration, said: “Every mining company that I have talked to wants to see the lithium they produce processed and turned into batteries in the United States. But if there aren’t enough facilities here in the United States, the Chinese will likely process it and turn it into batteries.”

The U.S.’ share of worldwide production has dropped from 27% in 1996 to 1% in 2020 while other countries have increased their mining of lithium since the mid-1990s, when the mineral was used primarily for construction materials, glass, and strengthening aluminum and magnesium.

The growth in worldwide lithium production coincides with the increase in production of electric vehicles. In 2015, less than 30% of lithium demand was for batteries, according to a report from McKinsey & Company, a consultancy. By 2030, McKinsey projects, 95% of produced lithium will be for batteries.

The U.S. last year produced 2,500 tons of lithium – a far cry from the 80,000 tons anticipated at Thacker Pass – and it exported 1,900 of those tons.

The destination of lithium exported last year by the U.S. has not yet been compiled and 2020’s numbers are skewed by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019 – predating the Biden renewable goals – Germany and Japan were the largest recipients of U.S.-mined lithium. Little U.S. lithium went to China in 2020, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

Despite the high strategic priority placed on lithium by the Biden administration, Beijing’s continued push for mineral dominance in the world means that “China will continue to dominate lithium chemical production for the foreseeable future,” according to a projection from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a London-based price-reporting agency.

Reliance on Chinese processing of lithium would again put the Biden administration in the politically uncomfortable position of overlooking humanitarian abuses and trade violations by China.

Forced labor has been found in so-called green industries in the Chinese region of Xinjiang, a region home to solar panel manufacturing and some of the country’s major lithium processing plants.

Last week, seven Democratic lawmakers sent a letter to Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas asking why three large Chinese solar firms were left off a list of companies whose products are banned over violations of forced labor rules. Under the Uighur Forced Labor Prevention Act that took effect on June 21, all goods manufactured in Xinjiang are presumed to have been made with forced labor and should be blocked from entry into the United States.

In another recent instance irritating environmental and human rights advocates who are usually in Biden’s camp, the President last week fist-bumped Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, tied to the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, while on a visit to coax greater oil production from the kingdom and stem soaring U.S. gas prices at the pump. At home, the climate change-focused administration has imposed or proposed policies intended to hinder fossil fuel producers.

U.S. reliance on foreign interests for usable lithium, as well as for solar panels, echoes the situation in Europe, where several countries looked to Russian energy sources over the years before Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. That led Germany and Italy to recently announce plans to revamp coal use to supply their energy needs.

There are other ramifications to Biden’s willingness to cut against the traditional Democratic Party grain in energy policy. Mining and solar plant development are disrupting federal lands claimed by Native American tribes as culturally significant. And the Reno-Sparks Indian Colony and the Oregon-based Burns Paiute Tribe have sued the U.S. Bureau of Land Management to halt the Thacker Pass project. They claim the area is a religious and cultural outpost. Lithium Americas had been in talks with the land bureau to build a mine on the land since at least 2017, according to a RealClearInvestigations review of court filings.

Native American communities lean to Democrats and in 2020 gave Biden an estimated 60% percent of their vote, but that support is now counterbalanced by the National Mining Association, a longtime coal-mining advocacy group, which has backed off its favoritism of Republican candidates.

The mining association’s political action committee has for the past decade donated to Republican candidates at a 9-1 pace over Democrats, but this year the ratio dropped to 3-1 as mining companies have warmed to the administration’s move away from coal and into lithium.

Rich Nolan, president of the mining association, did not respond to an interview request.

Gary McKinney, a spokesman for the People of Red Mountain, a Native American group challenging the Thacker Pass mine, sees a familiar ulterior motive at play. “You can’t fix the climate crisis through dirty mining,” he said. “This is all about money, not the environment.”

Image via Mining.com. Article cross-posted from Real Clear Investigations.

Article by Kathleen Li from our premium news partners at The Epoch Times.

“We love our suppliers, and we have a very strong relationship, but we are very dependant on the supplies coming from China. … We think there are risks in terms of the stability of the supply, given everything happens geopolitically,” Tim Karimov, president of U.S. lithium battery manufacturer OneCharge, said in a presentation at the MODEX 22 seminar.

MODEX is the largest manufacturing and supply chain expo held in North America and South America. MODEX 22 was held on March 28-31 at Atlanta’s Georgia World Congress Center.

In January, OneCharge released a white paper addressing the U.S. role in global lithium battery manufacturing and the risks China poses to the supply chain.

“China currently dominates the global lithium battery supply chain. Upwards of 70% of the total global Li-ion battery manufacturing capacity is controlled by China. … Should China decide to throttle supply or dramatically raise prices, this would hurt the U.S. transportation and logistics sectors, which are quickly adopting lithium battery-powered electric vehicles,” the report states.

According to the Chinese digital newspaper The Paper, BYD Co. Ltd. (01211.HK), a Chinese conglomerate and electric vehicle manufacturer, is currently in talks to buy six lithium mines in Africa containing more than 27 million tons of lithium oxide at 2.5 percent grade—enough to supply BYD with 10 years of lithium oxide.

EV manufacturers have come under pressure due to the soaring lithium price for EV batteries amid the surging demand for electric vehicles. As a result, many companies also have stepped into the global race to acquire lithium mines.

China’s lithium sources primarily come from ecologically fragile areas, such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with a harsh natural environment, poor infrastructure, and significant technical challenges. Despite those challenges, Beijing has actively encouraged Chinese state-backed companies to secure lithium mines overseas to surpass Europe and the United States in the new energy industry, according to Chinese state-run media Yicai.

Chinese Control in Critical Lithium Resources

The lithium industry has a high degree of market concentration. In 2020, five companies accounted for nearly half of the world’s lithium production capacity, producing approximately 75 percent of the worldwide supply, according to a report released by China Merchants Bank Research Institute on March 4.

Two of the five companies—Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd. (01772.HK) and Tianqi Lithium Co. Ltd. (02466.SZ)—are from China. Both companies have taken up significant shares in global lithium resources, allowing them to control the lithium supply chain.

Chinese battery giant Ganfeng Lithium’s overseas footprint in lithium resources spans Australia, Argentina, and Ireland, according to its 2021 annual report.

Among them, the Mount Marion Project in Australia is the largest source of Ganfeng’s lithium supply. Ganfeng secures stable raw materials supplies by signing long-term procurement agreements with upstream lithium providers after investing in them.

Chinese giant Tianqi Lithium has also secured its lithium supplies by purchasing massive shares of leading companies in the upstream lithium supply chain. In 2014, Tianqi Lithium acquired 51 percent shares in Windfield Holdings, the shareholder of Talison Lithium, which owns the Greenbushes lithium deposit in Western Australia—the world’s largest hard-rock lithium mine.

And in 2018, Tianqi Lithium purchased 23.77 percent shares in SQM, a world-leading brine-based lithium producer. The company has since become the second-largest shareholder of SQM.