Show Notes – American Conservative Movement https://americanconservativemovement.com American exceptionalism isn't dead. It just needs to be embraced. Wed, 07 Dec 2022 08:36:02 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.2 https://americanconservativemovement.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/cropped-America-First-Favicon-32x32.png Show Notes – American Conservative Movement https://americanconservativemovement.com 32 32 135597105 VAXXING YOUR BRAIN: Google Trying to “Immunize” Users Against Misinformation With New “Info Interventions” Propaganda Scheme https://americanconservativemovement.com/vaxxing-your-brain-google-trying-to-immunize-users-against-misinformation-with-new-info-interventions-propaganda-scheme/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/vaxxing-your-brain-google-trying-to-immunize-users-against-misinformation-with-new-info-interventions-propaganda-scheme/#comments Wed, 07 Dec 2022 08:36:02 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/?p=186093 To better control the thoughts and actions of modern humans, tech giant Google has announced the launch of a new brainwashing propaganda scheme called “Info Interventions.”

The project aims to “teach” Google users which information to avoid as “false” while training them to spot and accept only information that Google deems as “true.” If used as intended, Google users will be “immunized” against online “misinformation.”

This “pre-bunking” plot is Google’s latest dystopian attempt to squelch online free speech – though instead of simply banning or censoring content, Google is now attempting to rewire the brains of humanity to automatically filter our “disinformation.”

According to the company, users will be presented with “accuracy prompts” as they search and browse. These prompts are designed to train users into clicking only the links that Google wants them to click.

As stated by Google, the scheme is all about “reminding individuals to think about accuracy when they might be about to engage with false information,” adding that these Info Interventions “can boost users’ pre-existing accuracy goals.”

Google says it is drawing from behavioral science research to develop the most effective brainwashing tools it can, calling it a “gift to the world”. (Related: Remember in 2017 when a Google executive announced that he believes immortality will be achieved by the year 2029?)

Google says people will be “prone to distractions” and “misinformation” unless they listen to Google

A special unit of Google called Jigsaw is behind the new tool. Jigsaw was established to “explore threats to open societies, and build technology that inspires scalable solutions.”

In March 2021, a Medium post by Jigsaw declared that one of the most powerful ways to reduce “misinformation” is to constantly remind users how to think, what to click, and what to believe – “in other words, goading them until they move to where you want them to go,” to quote Reclaim the Net.

Without Google there to tell users what to think and do, the company says they would be “prone to distractions.” In other words, the human brain is inherently flawed, and the only way to fix it is to allow Google to do your thinking for you.

One example of how Google’s interventions work has to do with commenting. If a person writes something that Google’s perspective API identifies as “toxic,” then machine learning models will identify it as abusive and provide feedback to the author.

That feedback explains that the comment was identified as “risky” or “offensive,” and misaligned with the publisher’s community guidelines. The user is then encouraged to alter the comment to make it more acceptable, based on Google’s standards.

Google’s API also does this same thing with content, alerting readers of a potentially “offensive” article that it may contain “potential misinformation.” Readers are then encouraged to click elsewhere or to not take the article’s content seriously.

An “accuracy prompt” might then pop up over the top of information that is already labeled as such. Google also employs the use of “literacy tips” to encourage users to “reflect on the accuracy of a news headline before continuing to browse.”

Articles like this one would almost certainly be targeted by Google’s “misinformation” programs. A “reminder” might come up urging readers to reconsider and “think twice” before accepting any of this as valid simply because it questions the almighty Google.

“Prebunking is a technique to preempt manipulation attempts online,” is how Google explains the process. “By forewarning individuals and equipping them to spot and refute misleading arguments, they gain resilience to being misled in the future.”

The latest news about Google can be found at Evil.news.

Sources for this article include:

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Will a Full-Blown Global Economic Collapse Strike in 2023? https://americanconservativemovement.com/will-a-full-blown-global-economic-collapse-strike-in-2023/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/will-a-full-blown-global-economic-collapse-strike-in-2023/#comments Wed, 07 Dec 2022 00:59:48 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/?p=186040

It’s important to know something up front. I have NOT been a “Chicken Little” who was screaming about economic collapse for years. I didn’t panic for Y2K. I didn’t panic during the economic downturn of 2008-2009. I didn’t freak out over Obamacare, at least not from an economic perspective. I believed that we could recover from the 2020 lockdowns. But by mid-2021 I finally started getting truly concerned and throughout 2022 I’ve been monitoring the nation’s economy very closely.

Now, I’m ringing the alarm bells because the threat of full-blown global economic collapse is real as we go into 2023.

On today’s episode of The JD Rucker Show, I covered several stories that highlight the dangerous trends we’re seeing. Unfortunately, the Biden-Harris regime seems bent on making things even worse and the new Republican majority in the House doesn’t seem willing or able to do much to stop it.

One of the prevailing stories giving people hope for the past couple of months is better-than-expected stock performance. Is this a sign that the tide is turning? According to Bloomberg and Zero Hedge, no. It’s just a sign that markets expected good things to happen. Since they haven’t, we shouldn’t anticipate a stock market that continues to overperform:

Two Great Months for US Stocks Promise Too Much for Own Good

The markets have been front-running the idea of a Fed pivot for some time now. While that is far-fetched, one must still admit that a Fed pause after its funds rate reaches circa 5%-5.25% is very much on the cards. While pretty much everyone in the markets is primed for the idea of a US recession, November’s non-farm payroll numbers (and perhaps even more importantly, the hourly earnings rising at twice the forecast pace) suggest that this inflationary episode may be around longer than realized.

And that is a worse denouement than any stock investor would wish. Not only do you have a scenario where inflation is corroding the nominal coupon on stocks, but you also have to factor in a slowing economy where presumably there is also a drag on earnings. A scenario that weighs on both the numerator and denominator (a high interest-rate recession) is hardly a prescription for a stellar rally month after month.

At current levels, the S&P 500 offers an estimated earnings yield of around 5.40% and the Nasdaq 100 around 4.32%, hardly anything to write home about in an environment where you can invest in two-year Treasuries that offer 4.27%.

Yes, there may be something to be said for being a part of that smart-money brigade that has made a grand return of 20%+ within a quarter and fleeing to where the honey is next, but that is predicated more on getting the timing right — an iffy proposition even with the most seasoned investors. For every one idea that works out as per plan, the nine that follow come a cropper. [read more]

Costco Reports Large-Scale Shortages as Essential Items Are Impossible to Find at Stores

On the second segment of today’s show, I turned to the “Epic Economist” to deliver a dose of reality about Costco. It’s a financial indicator some use to see what’s really happening with the supply chain and the retain market. Here’s a transcript followed by the individual video I played during today’s show:

The pantry of most American families today is probably looking a lot different than it was just a few months ago when grocery prices were lower and we still could find the majority of the products we usually rely on in our day-to-day lives. But now, shoppers are increasingly noticing the ongoing shortages at their favorite stores. With supply chain problems still impacting the production and delivery of goods, and mass migrations of employees searching for better wages resulting in labor shortages in the food sector, many of our favorite staple items are becoming harder to find. And that’s especially true at Costco.

In fact, new reports reveal that Costco warehouses are facing many different shortages, and dozens of products are about to be discontinued. Costco customers are getting more and more frustrated as they see essential items disappearing from the store’s shelves and start facing purchase limits once again. Today, we decided to track some of the most severe product stockouts and also expose which items may disappear next.

In recent months, American shoppers have been repeatedly reporting missing grocery items at their local Costco warehouse. But things seem to have taken a turn for the worse in October when several food products that were supposed to enter our food supply chains never arrived. We had a year of historical crop losses due to extreme weather conditions. The worst drought ever seen in this century resulted in some of the weakest harvest seasons in nearly five decades.

The scorching temperatures also led our beef cow herd to rapidly shrink, as farmers sent their animals to slaughter earlier than they typically do to prevent them from dying of thirst and starvation amid dwindling supplies of water and cow feed. You also probably heard about the avian flu epidemic, which is not only leading to shortages of chicken but also pushing poultry and egg prices to skyrocket The result of all of these losses is now being seen at the stores in the form of empty shelves.

Even major grocers like Costco are struggling to keep shelves fully stocked and announcing that in the coming months, many items will be discontinued. That’s why we decided to analyze data provided by Eat This, Not That, a leading news outlet in food, nutrition, and health, to track which are the most persistent grocery shortages at the retailer’s locations and what items are about to go out of stock.

The company just announced that dozens of products are being discontinued over the next few months. This means that your favorite treats may disappear from the store and not come back. A new report exposed that you may have to say goodbye to a wide range of treats that the retailer decided it will no longer sell. Knowing that some of your favorite items are going to be discontinued is one of the most disappointing experiences as a grocery shopper.

At the same time, it looks like purchasing limits are back with a vengeance. When searching the warehouse’s website for “limit”, we found dozens of items, ranging from active dry yeast at five per member, to almond flour at one per member, to acetaminophen at one per member, several types of wild canned tuna at one per member, mac and cheese at 10 per member, to soy milk at two per member, and many more. Retailers haven’t been able to catch a breath these days. The environment for most businesses remains tough, and as this downturn accelerates, they will continue to see their bottom lines getting hurt, and the same will be true for our personal finances.

Could 65 Trillion Dollars in “Hidden” Derivatives Cause the Entire Global Financial System to Crash?

If you thought that the collapse of FTX was something, just wait until the entire global financial system comes crashing down all around us.  Most people just assume that the system is being managed by rational people that behave in rational ways, but of course countless investors assumed the same things about FTX.  Sadly, the global financial system has slowly but surely been transformed into the largest casino in the history of the world.  It is a colossal Ponzi scheme, and once in a while authorities give us a little peek into what is really going on behind the curtain.

For example, this week the Bank for International Settlements released a report that warned that 65 trillion dollars in “hidden” currency derivatives could potentially be a major threat to the stability of the entire system

There’s a hidden risk to the global financial system embedded in the $65 trillion of dollar debt being held by non-US institutions via currency derivatives, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

In a paper with the title “huge, missing and growing,” the BIS said a lack of information is making it harder for policy makers to anticipate the next financial crisis. In particular, they raised concern with the fact that the debt is going unrecorded on balance sheets because of accounting conventions on how to track derivative positions.

Last year, the total value of all goods and services produced in the entire world was just 96 trillion dollars.

So we are talking about an amount of money that is almost unimaginable. [read more]

The Bubble Economy’s Credit-Asset Death Spiral

Understanding why those in the financial industry aren’t ringing the alarm bell takes one simple revelation. Even as economies begin collapsing, THEY’RE still making plenty of money. The messes that are being made are mostly affecting the middle class. Even those with modest wealth are feeling the crunch. But the real money players are benefitting greatly. We discussed this a bit on the episode with an article by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds via Lew Rockwell:

Who believed that central banks’ financial perpetual motion machine was anything more than trickery designed to generate phantom wealth? Central banks seem to have perfected the ideal financial perpetual motion machine: as credit expands, money pours into risk assets, which shoot higher under the pressure of expanding demand for assets that yield either hefty returns (junk bonds) or hefty capital gains as the soaring assets suck in more capital chasing returns.

As assets soar in value, they serve as collateral for more credit. Higher valuations = more collateral to borrow against. This open spigot of additional credit sluices capital right back into the assets that are climbing in value, pushing them higher–which then creates even more collateral to support even more credit.

This self-reinforcing feedback of expanding credit feeding expanding valuations feeding expanding collateral which then feeds expanding credit has no apparent end. Modest houses once worth $100,000 are now worth $1,000,000, and nobody’s complaining except those priced out of the infinite spiral of prices and credit.

For those priced out of traditional assets, there’s NFTs, meme stocks and short-duration options. The credit-asset bubble-economy casino has a gaming table for everyone’s budget and desire to “make it big” via speculation, since the traditional ladders to middle-class security have all been splintered.

This financial perpetual motion machine distorts traditional incentives. Why bother renting a house bought for speculative gains? Renters are problematic, better to just let it sit empty and rack up huge capital gains. Count the lighted windows at night in all those new condo high-rises. Are even 20% occupied? Probably not.

This is how you get a “housing shortage”: investors would rather keep units clean and off the market rather than risk renting units. When credit and asset valuations are both feeding an infinite expansion, all that matters is leveraging capital to acquire as many assets as possible to maximize the gains from this self-reinforcing wealth-creation machine.

This machine also incentivizes fraud. To really maximize gains, why not borrow clients’ capital? Indeed, why not? But unbeknownst to the central bank sorcerers and the greed-crazed participants, all systems have limits and all consequences have their own consequences, i.e. second-order effects. There are many such dynamics which are eroding the apparently unbreakable financial perpetual motion machine. [read more]

Our Gold Guy

In the 4th segment, I replayed an interview with Ira Bershatsky from Our Gold Guy that I recorded last week. Here’s what he has to say on his website:

Look around. Things aren’t the way they should be. Between Pandemic Panic Theater, Ukraine, food shortages, and a push for Central Bank Digital Currencies, everything you’ve spent your life building and protecting is in jeopardy.

Precious metals are historically the most reliable and safest hedge against economic turmoil. With the Biden regime and globalists enhancing the chaos, it’s important for patriotic Americans to take control of their financial future.

Ira Bershatsky offers consultations to those who want to invest in precious metals. During these consultations, he will match your current financial situation with the best physical precious metal purchases whether you want to rollover your IRA or have coins discreetly shipped to your home. You will not talk to a telemarketer or sales rep. You will talk to a true expert in precious metals with decades of experience helping people protect and advance their wealth.

Central Bank Digital Currencies With Brannon Howse and Congressman Glenn Grothman

The fifth segment had me turning to my good friend Brannon House and his interview of Congressman Glenn Grothman:

The Biden-Harris Regime Quietly Changes Rules to Incentivize Financial Advisors to Put Your Money Into Woke Investments EVEN IF IT LOSES MONEY

It’s no secret that the Biden-Harris regime and their puppetmasters among the globalist elite cabal absolutely hate us. They despise us as useless eaters who must be depopulated or controlled for them to achieve their nefarious goals of The Great Reset, the 4th Industrial Revolution, Build Back Better, the Green New Deal, the Liberal World Order, or whatever label they slap on their machinations in the future.

Now, they’re proudly declaring this hatred by prompting financial advisors and retirement institutions to move your money to ESG companies. Moreover, they lifted rules requiring them to try to make you money. In other words, they can lose money for YOU and still make money for themselves as long as they’re investing in wokeness. You can’t make this up, but apparently someone among the powers-that-be did anyway.

According to Jeff Murdoch at The Washington Times [emphasis added]:

The Biden administration has quietly finalized a rule allowing employers to funnel workers’ 401(k) funds into investments that support woke causes that address issues such as climate change and diversity.

The Labor Department recently approved the rule affecting roughly 150 million workers and $10 trillion in assets covered under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974.

The rule says asset managers and retirement plan administrators should consider environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) factors when selecting investments. That would encourage money managers to balance financial returns with investments that support wind and solar energy or have diverse boards of directors.

The rules also remove a restriction blocking employers from using an ESG fund as a default option for workers automatically enrolled in 401(k) plans. That means workers could be supporting causes that don’t align with their political views.

It also rescinds Trump-era regulations that require retirement plan administrators and asset managers to choose investments based solely on participants’ financial interests.

This is just another reason why I STRONGLY recommend everyone of all ages move their wealth or retirement into a self-directed IRA. Don’t let advisors and retirement companies quietly compel you to lose money on woke investments even as they make more money thanks to the Biden-Harris regime’s priorities.

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The Biden-Harris Regime Quietly Changes Rules to Incentivize Financial Advisors to Put Your Money Into Woke Investments EVEN IF IT LOSES MONEY https://americanconservativemovement.com/the-biden-harris-regime-quietly-changes-rules-to-incentivize-financial-advisors-to-put-your-money-into-woke-investments-even-if-it-loses-money/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/the-biden-harris-regime-quietly-changes-rules-to-incentivize-financial-advisors-to-put-your-money-into-woke-investments-even-if-it-loses-money/#comments Tue, 06 Dec 2022 23:47:23 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/?p=186049 It’s no secret that the Biden-Harris regime and their puppetmasters among the globalist elite cabal absolutely hate us. They despise us as useless eaters who must be depopulated or controlled for them to achieve their nefarious goals of The Great Reset, the 4th Industrial Revolution, Build Back Better, the Green New Deal, the Liberal World Order, or whatever label they slap on their machinations in the future.

Now, they’re proudly declaring this hatred by prompting financial advisors and retirement institutions to move your money to ESG companies. Moreover, they lifted rules requiring them to try to make you money. In other words, they can lose money for YOU and still make money for themselves as long as they’re investing in wokeness. You can’t make this up, but apparently someone among the powers-that-be did anyway.

According to Jeff Murdoch at The Washington Times [emphasis added]:

The Biden administration has quietly finalized a rule allowing employers to funnel workers’ 401(k) funds into investments that support woke causes that address issues such as climate change and diversity.

The Labor Department recently approved the rule affecting roughly 150 million workers and $10 trillion in assets covered under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974.

The rule says asset managers and retirement plan administrators should consider environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) factors when selecting investments. That would encourage money managers to balance financial returns with investments that support wind and solar energy or have diverse boards of directors.

The rules also remove a restriction blocking employers from using an ESG fund as a default option for workers automatically enrolled in 401(k) plans. That means workers could be supporting causes that don’t align with their political views.

It also rescinds Trump-era regulations that require retirement plan administrators and asset managers to choose investments based solely on participants’ financial interests.

This is just another reason why I STRONGLY recommend everyone of all ages move their wealth or retirement into a self-directed IRA. Don’t let advisors and retirement companies quietly compel you to lose money on woke investments even as they make more money thanks to the Biden-Harris regime’s priorities.

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Could 65 Trillion Dollars in “Hidden” Derivatives Cause the Entire Global Financial System to Crash? https://americanconservativemovement.com/could-65-trillion-dollars-in-hidden-derivatives-cause-the-entire-global-financial-system-to-crash/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/could-65-trillion-dollars-in-hidden-derivatives-cause-the-entire-global-financial-system-to-crash/#comments Tue, 06 Dec 2022 23:11:19 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/?p=186044 If you thought that the collapse of FTX was something, just wait until the entire global financial system comes crashing down all around us.  Most people just assume that the system is being managed by rational people that behave in rational ways, but of course countless investors assumed the same things about FTX.  Sadly, the global financial system has slowly but surely been transformed into the largest casino in the history of the world.  It is a colossal Ponzi scheme, and once in a while authorities give us a little peek into what is really going on behind the curtain.

For example, this week the Bank for International Settlements released a report that warned that 65 trillion dollars in “hidden” currency derivatives could potentially be a major threat to the stability of the entire system

There’s a hidden risk to the global financial system embedded in the $65 trillion of dollar debt being held by non-US institutions via currency derivatives, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

In a paper with the title “huge, missing and growing,” the BIS said a lack of information is making it harder for policy makers to anticipate the next financial crisis. In particular, they raised concern with the fact that the debt is going unrecorded on balance sheets because of accounting conventions on how to track derivative positions.

Last year, the total value of all goods and services produced in the entire world was just 96 trillion dollars.

So we are talking about an amount of money that is almost unimaginable.

Everything will be okay as long as financial conditions remain relatively stable.

But BIS analysts warn that “the next time dollar funding liquidity is squeezed” we could have an enormous crisis on our hands…

“Off-balance-sheet dollar debt may remain out of sight and out of mind—but only until the next time dollar funding liquidity is squeezed,” the analysts write. “Then, the hidden leverage in pension funds and insurance companies’ portfolios . . . could pose a policy challenge.”

So let’s hope that such a scenario does not materialize any time soon.

According to the BIS report, banks outside the U.S. are particularly vulnerable

For researchers at the BIS, it’s the sheer scale of the swaps that’s worrying. They estimate that banks headquartered outside the US carry $39 trillion of this debt — more than double their on-balance sheet obligations and ten times their capital. Accounting conventions only require derivatives to be booked on a net basis, so the full extent of the cash involved isn’t recorded on a balance sheet.

“There is a staggering volume of off-balance sheet dollar debt that is partly hidden, and FX risk settlement remains stubbornly high,” said Borio, head of the monetary and economic department at the BIS.

When this thing finally implodes, there isn’t going to be enough money in the entire world to fix it all.

But don’t worry.

The “experts” are telling us that everything is fine.

Meanwhile, more of our largest corporations are planning layoffs.  According to the Wall Street Journal, this even includes PepsiCo

PepsiCo is reported laying off headquarter workers, The Wall Street Journal reports.

A person familiar with the matter told the Journal that hundreds of jobs are being cut in the head office of the North American snacks and beverages divisions.

Employees in Purchase, N.Y., Chicago, Ill. and Plano, Tex. are said to be impacted.

I thought that PepsiCo was doing well.

I guess not.

But don’t worry.

The “experts” are telling us that everything is fine.

This week some of the biggest names in the mainstream media have also announced layoffs

Hundreds of media industry staffers were laid off this week during a brutal period that saw Warner Bros. Discovery, Gannett and others slash headcount as economic uncertainty plagues news organizations.

Gannett, a newspaper juggernaut that owns dozens of local media outlets along with USA Today, began its latest round of layoffs on Thursday. The cost-cutting effort impacted roughly 6% of the company’s news workforce of about 3,440 employees.

I can’t remember ever seeing such a wave of layoffs at our largest media companies.

But don’t worry.

The “experts” are telling us that everything is fine.

Of course the truth is that everything is not fine.

Economic conditions are deteriorating all around us, and the ripple effects are being felt everywhere.

According to Fox Business, even Las Vegas is feeling the pain…

Inflation is taking its toll on Sin City as fewer tourists are visiting the gambling Mecca, and those who do spend less than usual, according to a new report.

The University of Las Vegas business school released a report forecasting the city’s economic outlook between 2022 and 2024 and noted that its economy turned grim in June of this year, according to Fox 5.

“Interest rates have gone up. And we know that we know that prices are going up as well. And that’s what the Fed is trying to get their hands around and solve. So it may be that the Fed’s policies is having an effect not only nationally, but it’s also affecting our economy locally,” one of the study’s authors, Professor Stephen Miller, told the outlet.

2008 and 2009 were incredibly difficult years for Las Vegas.

Now those that run businesses in Sin City are bracing for another extended downturn.

In all my years of writing, I have never been more concerned about the short-term economic outlook them I am right now. It is very likely that 2023 will be a really hard year for the U.S. economy, and of course this comes at a time when the entire globe is being hit by crisis after crisis.

For ages we have been warned that a day of reckoning would eventually be coming, and now it appears that day of reckoning has already arrived.

There is certainly nothing wrong with hoping for the best.  But there is also wisdom in getting prepared for the worst.

***It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael and my brand new book entitled “End Times” is now available on Amazon.com.  In addition to my new book I have written six other books that are available on Amazon.com including “7 Year Apocalypse”“Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”“The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. (#CommissionsEarned)  When you purchase any of these books you help to support the work that I am doing, and one way that you can really help is by sending copies as gifts to family and friends.  Time is short, and I need help getting these warnings into the hands of as many people as possible.

I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse BlogEnd Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe.  I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article.  The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions.

I encourage you to follow me on social media on Facebook and Twitter, and any way that you can share these articles with others is definitely a great help.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, I strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

Article cross-posted from The Economic Collapse Blog.

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Two Great Months for US Stocks Promise Too Much for Own Good https://americanconservativemovement.com/two-great-months-for-us-stocks-promise-too-much-for-own-good/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/two-great-months-for-us-stocks-promise-too-much-for-own-good/#respond Tue, 06 Dec 2022 22:51:38 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/?p=186041 By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets live reporter and analyst via Zero Hedge.

US stocks have had a stunning quarter so far, the best Q4 since 1999! To expect them to continue rallying would to be wish for the Hailey’s Comet to keep appearing in quick succession.

The markets have been front-running the idea of a Fed pivot for some time now. While that is far-fetched, one must still admit that a Fed pause after its funds rate reaches circa 5%-5.25% is very much on the cards. While pretty much everyone in the markets is primed for the idea of a US recession, November’s non-farm payroll numbers (and perhaps even more importantly, the hourly earnings rising at twice the forecast pace) suggest that this inflationary episode may be around longer than realized.

And that is a worse denouement than any stock investor would wish. Not only do you have a scenario where inflation is corroding the nominal coupon on stocks, but you also have to factor in a slowing economy where presumably there is also a drag on earnings. A scenario that weighs on both the numerator and denominator (a high interest-rate recession) is hardly a prescription for a stellar rally month after month.

At current levels, the S&P 500 offers an estimated earnings yield of around 5.40% and the Nasdaq 100 around 4.32%, hardly anything to write home about in an environment where you can invest in two-year Treasuries that offer 4.27%.

Yes, there may be something to be said for being a part of that smart-money brigade that has made a grand return of 20%+ within a quarter and fleeing to where the honey is next, but that is predicated more on getting the timing right — an iffy proposition even with the most seasoned investors. For every one idea that works out as per plan, the nine that follow come a cropper.

As Benjamin Graham said, investment is most intelligent when it is most business-like, not when you treat the stock market as a casino, looking for the next big lottery that will offer massive returns overnight.

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