Stagflation – American Conservative Movement https://americanconservativemovement.com American exceptionalism isn't dead. It just needs to be embraced. Sat, 30 Dec 2023 19:20:51 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.2 https://americanconservativemovement.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/cropped-America-First-Favicon-32x32.png Stagflation – American Conservative Movement https://americanconservativemovement.com 32 32 135597105 Central Banks Brought Inflation — Now They Bring Stagnation https://americanconservativemovement.com/central-banks-brought-inflation-now-they-bring-stagnation/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/central-banks-brought-inflation-now-they-bring-stagnation/#respond Sat, 30 Dec 2023 19:20:51 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/?p=199905 (Mises)—Although the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank’s message regarding interest rate cuts seems clear, reiterating their commitment to reducing inflation, the market is expecting between five and six interest rate cuts, between 125 and 150 basis points, in the next twelve months.

This shows us the bubble bias of many investors. We live in a world where two generations of market participants have only seen rate cuts and massive liquidity injections. Central banks have created huge perverse incentives in markets that should have been prevented if they truly followed their mandate of stable prices. On top of it, the ECB faces another risk. It must avoid following the siren calls of interventionists if it wants the euro project to survive.

The euro is the biggest monetary success of the last 100 years, and the ECB’s excessively loose policy may destroy its position as a world reserve currency. The interventionist hordes of European socialism want the central bank to become an instrument in the hands of governments to nationalize the economy and destroy the currency’s purchasing power.

Don’t be mistaken; for those who come up with soft words demanding “expansive-looking monetary policy,” what they are looking for is exactly what they have supported in Argentina, Venezuela, and Cuba: the expropriation of wealth through the dissolution of the purchasing power of the currency.

It would be completely irresponsible to implement massive rate cuts for several reasons.

Central banks are placing all the focus on the price and not the quantity of money. Ignoring monetary aggregates is very dangerous, and centering decisions only on rates may create a larger problem: a market bubble and a real economy contraction.

By ignoring monetary aggregates, central banks may cut rates with no real effect on the productive economy and solve nothing. There may be a significant contraction in economic activity even if rates decline, as credit availability worsens even with declining rates, but markets keep inflating the financial bubble.

Inflation has not declined persistently. Since the consumer price index is a year-on-year calculation from a very high figure, the base effect accounts for up to 85% of the decline in inflation. The same base effect could adversely affect inflation in the coming months if the annual path of price rises remains.

The greatest economic aberration of our time, negative interest rates, actually made the structural weakness in the economy worse, causing it to slow down.

The economy has been accumulating poor and indebted growth data for years in which misguided so-called “expansive” monetary policies have been implemented. Negative rates and extreme liquidity injection have not generated greater or better growth but have left states with enormous imbalances.

Consumers are still suffering from the monetary disaster created in 2020. We are talking about a cumulative inflation rate of more than 22% since 2018 and a price rise that continues to be worrying, particularly in non-replaceable goods.

Monetary aggregates show that there is a private sector recession disguised by accumulated debt. Between January 2020 and July 2022, the money supply (M2) soared by an insane $6.3 trillion, according to FRED. It has declined almost a trillion dollars from its peak. The impact of this decline in money supply on the availability of credit and the broad economy will not be evident until 2024, when it coincides with an enormous wall of debt maturities. Central banks went from excess money to overlooking the money slump. Both are equally negative. One created the inflation burst, and the second is driving a private sector recession disguised by debt.

Inflation is a monetary effect. What some call cost inflation, commodity inflation, or supply shock is nothing more than more units of issued currency than real economic growth going to relatively scarce assets. Unit prices may rise for exogenous reasons, but they do not generate a sustained and cumulative rise in aggregate prices, which is what measures inflation. If a price soars due to an exogenous factor, the rest of the price does not rise at once if the currency issued remains constant relative to economic growth.

Of course, the system creates a whole series of experts who blame inflation on everything and anyone except for the only thing that can make aggregate prices rise at once, consolidate that annual burst, and continue to rise: the decrease in the purchasing power of the currency.

Those who understand money predict inflation and warn of the current risk. From Steve Hanke’s articles and the Inflation Dashboard that accurately predicted the inflation eruption of 2021–22, Richard Burdekin, “The U.S. Money Explosion of 2020: Monetarism and Inflation” (2020), to Claudio Borio, “Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?” (2023), or Juan Castañeda and Tim Congdon, “Inflation, The Next Threat?” (2020), dozens of studies warned of the arrival of inflation by excess monetary and explained the empirically monetary cause. Some argue that in 2009–2019 there was no inflation and money was also printed massively, but they do not understand the quantitative theory of money and ignore that the monetary expansion of 2020–22 was up to five times greater than that of the previous period of stimulus plans, as well as fully dedicated to government spending programs.

If we look at the contraction of monetary aggregates, inflation should have dropped faster, and the economy would be in a recession. However, the accumulated effect of massive money growth added to an unstoppable debt-fueled government deficit makes the impact of the 2020–21 liquidity explosion disguise the risks.

Inflation was created by the wrong monetary policy, and incorrect central bank measures may have lasting negative impacts on the economy. The first effect is evident: governments continue to crowd out the real economy, and families and businesses suffer the entire burden of rate hikes. Maybe the objective was always to increase the size of the public sector at any cost and implement a gradual nationalization of the economy.

Market participants should stop encouraging bubble-generating policies, and central banks should focus on monetary aggregates to avoid boom and bust cycles. The negative effects of the current money slump may arrive at once with the wall of maturities. Even if we avoid a recession, it will likely be a false way out with a debt-bloated government consumption figure, weak productivity, and private sector growth.

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Stagflation Expected in US Economy, Driving Precious Metal Price Increases https://americanconservativemovement.com/stagflation-expected-in-us-economy-driving-precious-metal-price-increases/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/stagflation-expected-in-us-economy-driving-precious-metal-price-increases/#respond Mon, 28 Aug 2023 21:09:45 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/?p=196066 According to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, the US economy is on track to experience a period of low growth coupled with persistent inflation. This economic situation, known as stagflation, is expected to drive significant price increases for precious metals like gold and silver.

Saxo Bank recently revised its US economic outlook for 2024, referring to it as “stagflation light.” This term describes a situation of sluggish growth combined with ongoing inflation. Hansen attributes the downgrade of US credit by Fitch in part to the substantial rise in real interest rates, which has made funding costs for the country extremely high.

Hansen also highlights the impact of rising interest rates on consumption costs, affecting credit cards, new cars, and mortgages. Furthermore, there has been a noticeable slowdown in job data and spending.

The combination of low growth and moderately high inflation is seen as indicative of stagflation. If this scenario materializes, it will confirm the view that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are struggling to combat stubbornly high inflation. Further actions taken by central banks could potentially damage economic growth without effectively addressing the persistent price pressures. In Hansen’s opinion, the US Federal Reserve may choose to cut rates even before reaching the 2% average inflation target. This could lead to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increasing its target to 3%. Such developments would result in a repricing of future inflation expectations, accompanied by a decrease in real yields, thereby supporting commodities.

During periods of stagflation, specific commodities become attractive as inflation hedges and for portfolio diversification. Hansen also notes that a weaker US dollar can make dollar-denominated commodities more affordable for non-dollar-based buyers, potentially driving up demand and prices. These commodities are appealing because they can deliver positive real returns, even in the face of inflation impacting traditional investments.

Hansen explains that commodity prices often spike when there are supply limitations or strong demand. He emphasizes that a well-supplied market would typically trade in contango, with higher forward prices accounting for storage, transportation, and funding costs. Hansen presents a chart indicating the spread between first and twelfth month futures contracts for major energy and metal futures. The commodities trading above the yellow line, representing the inverted one-year funding cost of around 5.3%, indicate some degree of tightness in the market. This is crucial to understand, as it may support prices despite a weakening economic outlook and provide additional returns for investors.

Hansen suggests that precious metals, such as gold and silver, may gain an advantage during a stagflation period. On the other hand, commodities driven primarily by consumer demand, like agricultural products, are likely to see weaker performance. Industrial metals may also be affected, but high funding, employment, environmental costs, and continued demand for green transformation metals might still benefit this group of commodities in the context of stagflation. Consequently, Hansen recommends that investors seeking to engage in commodities during stagflation should carefully select and diversify their portfolio across different sectors and regions.

Article generated from corporate media reports.

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Banking Institutions Quietly Admit to Inevitable Recession Implosion in 2023 https://americanconservativemovement.com/banking-institutions-quietly-admit-to-inevitable-recession-implosion-in-2023/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/banking-institutions-quietly-admit-to-inevitable-recession-implosion-in-2023/#respond Fri, 20 Jan 2023 15:03:54 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/?p=188961 As the Federal Reserve continues its fastest rate hike cycle since the stagflation crisis of 1980, a couple vital questions linger in the minds of economists everywhere – When is recession going to strike and when will the Fed reverse course on tightening?

The answers to these queries are at the same time simple and complex: First, the recession has already arrived. Second, the Fed is NOT going to reverse course, though they will probably stop tightening for a time.

The technical definition of a recession in the US is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We already experienced that in 2022, which led the Biden White House and puppet economists within the mainstream media to change the definition. The Federal Reserve also ignored deflationary signals throughout the last year and evidence suggests the central bank along with the Biden Administration even tried to hide the downturn with false employment numbers.

For a few years I have predicted that the establishment would shift into a monetary tightening phase and they would continue with interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions until markets break and the system destabilizes. That prediction has proven accurate so far, and the evidence shows that elements of a financial black hole have already been created.

The St. Louis Fed has quietly published data indicating that the US is now entering a recession. This admission was posted right before the new year, clearly as a means to avoid wider media attention. The news also comes not long after the Philadelphia Fed revised their 2nd Quarter labor growth numbers, erasing a whopping 1 million jobs from their original estimates.

The implication is that the Fed may have deliberately misreported jobs growth. Why? Because the central bank wants to continue tightening and they need positive numbers in order to justify rate hikes. The question we need to ask ourselves is why, after over a decade of easy money and QE, is the establishment now so insistent on popping the bubble now?

I can’t say exactly why the timing for the crash has been scheduled for 2023 – What I can say is that the crash will be dramatic and, as I noted in December, this event will probably start accelerating in March/April not long after the Fed hits a 5% interest rate.

Does this mean the central bank will pivot back to stimulus measures? No, it does not. I believe the Fed will stop rate hikes at around 5% for a time, but stimulus will not return. Also, a pause in hikes does not mean they will not restart tightening if price inflation remains high. Keep in mind that the Fed’s official inflation target is 2%; wee are a long way from that goal.

Also, the fed has created untold trillions of dollars since the 2008 credit collapse. They conjured over $8 trillion in 2020 and 2021 alone in the name of the covid economic response, all because of pandemic lockdowns that never should have happened in the first place. The amount of dollars floating around the world is epic and inflation is not going anywhere anytime soon.

Case in point – The US housing market has seen at least 10 consecutive months of sales declines as rates increase, yet prices remain extraordinarily high. In fact, nearly every sector of the consumer market is suffocating from high prices, and climbing interest rates have done little to pull them down. The Fed has room to declare a rationale and a mandate for tighter credit for many months to come.

Of course, the Fed created the stagflationary crisis in the first place, and now their “solution” is set to make things even worse. I have held and continue to hold to my theory that the central bank is deliberately triggering an economic crisis. All of their actions support this theory.

The average middle class citizen faces a serious uphill battle going into the new year. The IMF has admitted that at least 30% of the world is about to enter into recession conditions in 2023 and that the scenario will be “tougher” than last year as the US, EU and China see their economies slow. China, the largest exporter/importer in the world, is witnessing a dramatic downturn in exports which suggests that global consumer activity is tumbling.

The IMF, not surprisingly, is still trying to blame covid and the war in Ukraine for economic developments that central banks and corrupt governments are completely responsible for. This kind of disaster does not gestate in the span of a year, or even a couple of years – It can take a decade or more to inflate the massive financial bubble that held markets together up to 2020, and it takes strategic policy planning to pop that bubble in a way that is timed to coincide with a regional war.

Ukraine has NOTHING to do with current economic developments. Not a thing. The stagflation crisis started well before the war was launched. Covid has nothing to do with the crisis either; covid is essentially dead, but the inflation central banks initiated lives on.

The World Bank has followed along with the IMF’s statements and also recently predicted a sharp global economic downturn in 2023 leading to widespread instability. These kinds of announcements from global banks are very similar to those that occurred right before the credit crash of 2008; the banking establishment has been well aware for years that a major decline is in progress, but they only choose to talk about it publicly at the last minute.

So, as job losses skyrocket this year, as stocks tank and as sales plummet, remember this – The people who are responsible for the entire mess are the same people who are going to come to you one day soon and offer to “save” you and your family from strife. They’ll say that all they need is more power and more centralization to stop the bleeding. Don’t trust them and don’t trust their scapegoat narratives. Trust in yourself and in the liberty minded people around you.

Article cross-posted from Alt-Market.

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Thanks Biden! This Is What “Stagflation” Looks Like, and It Is Going to Be With Us for a While https://americanconservativemovement.com/thanks-biden-this-is-what-stagflation-looks-like-and-it-is-going-to-be-with-us-for-a-while/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/thanks-biden-this-is-what-stagflation-looks-like-and-it-is-going-to-be-with-us-for-a-while/#comments Thu, 13 Oct 2022 01:44:11 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/?p=183161 Normally, we shouldn’t have economic stagnation and rampant inflation at the same time.  But that is exactly what we’ve got.  U.S. GDP actually declined during the first two quarters of this year, and we are being warned that economic activity could slow down a whole lot more in the months ahead.  Meanwhile, we are in the midst of the worst inflation crisis since the Jimmy Carter era.  The cost of living has become extremely oppressive, and this is particularly true when it comes to food.  We just got some new numbers from the Department of Labor on Wednesday, and quite a few of them are absolutely stunning

  • Fresh and dried vegetables: up 15.7 percent for the month and 40.2 percent for the year.
  • Grains: up 10.7 percent for the month and 30.4 percent for the year.
  • Fresh eggs: up 16.7 percent for the month and 97.3 percent for the year.
  • Bakery products: up 0.8 percent for the month and 14.0 percent for the year.
  • Pasta: up 1.1 percent for the month and 34.1 percent for the year.
  • Finfish and shellfish: up 2.5 percent for the month and 2.9 percent for the year.
  • Processed fruits and vegetables: up 2.6 percent for the month and 16.0 percent for the year.
  • Dairy products: down 1.6 percent for the month but up 18.2 percent for the year.
  • Soft drinks: up 1.9 percent for the month but up 15.8 percent for the year.
  • Pork: up 5.5 percent for the month but down 2.0 percent for the year.
  • Fresh fruits and melons: down 1.2 percent for the month but up 20.7 percent for the year.
  • Turkey: up 0.5 percent for the month and 38.2 percent for the year.

This is crazy.

In my entire lifetime, I have never seen anything like this.

Everywhere you look in the grocery store, prices are rising to levels that are completely nuts.  If you can believe it, even Pepsi has raised prices on their products by an average of 17 percent over the past year…

The 12% increase it expects from full year organic revenue, noted by the Wall Street Journal this morning, comes at the hands of average prices rising an astonishing 17% from the year prior. The price hikes have also helped the company raise its profit outlook. It now expects per-share earnings growth of 10% for the year, the report notes.

The rise in prices has helped offset a “slight decline” in overall sales volume, the report says. This means that Pepsi is fighting the recession that the country is in with more inflation.

Has the size of your paycheck gone up by 17 percent during the past 12 months?

If not, you are losing ground.

Sadly, most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck these days, and more of us than ever are falling behind on our bills.  Just check out the results of a brand new LendingTree study

That’s according to a new LendingTree study, which found that 32% of Americans have paid a bill late over the past six months, and an overwhelming majority – about 61% – said it’s because they did not have enough money to cover the costs.

Another 40% of respondents said they are struggling more to afford their bills than they were just one year ago. Most said they fell behind on a utility bill, credit card payment or cable or internet bill.

“Life is getting more expensive by the day, and it’s shrinking Americans’ already tiny financial margin for error down to zero,” said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief credit analyst.

At the same time that the cost of living is becoming excruciatingly painful, economic activity in the United States is really starting to slow down and big companies are starting to lay off workers.

In fact, we just learned that Walmart will be laying off almost 1,500 more workers

As Walmart continues making adjustments to the structure of its business plan, the e-commerce-based company has announced it will let go of nearly 1,500 employees by the beginning of December. The employees will all be laid off from one specific fulfillment center in Atlanta, Georgia. This may come at a bad time for all the employees with the holidays quickly approaching, but the company is doing this to ensure their future.

A recent blog post published by the Senior Vice President, Karisa Sprague, breaks down and shares details of just how they are developing their fulfillment network for the future. Essentially, the Senior VP says that Walmart is making necessary adjustments to provide the highest level of customer service that they can, as well as also doing the best by their employees. She goes on the mention that evolution is essential as times change.

And Crypto.com has just laid off approximately 40 percent of their entire workforce..

Crypto.com has laid off some 2,000 employees in one of the biggest downsizes in the cryptocurrency industry yet. The cuts account for about 40% of the DeFi exchange’s staff, according to CoinDesk. The current layoffs come after the exchange cut over 400 jobs in the middle of June.

Unfortunately, this is just the beginning.

Many more layoffs are coming.

And just like we witnessed in 2008, the U.S. housing market is really starting to implode.

Rapidly rising rates are scaring off buyers, and demand for new mortgages is absolutely plummeting

The average interest rate on US home loans has hit its highest level since 2006, as the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes to fight inflation continue to raise borrowing costs for homebuyers.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage hit 6.81 percent for the week ending October 7, the eighth straight weekly increase, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said on Wednesday.

Higher borrowing costs have sent home sales volume plunging. The MBA’s Purchase Index, which measures new mortgages to buy a home, dropped 2 percent from the prior week and 39 percent from a year ago.

This is what stagflation looks like.

And thanks to a series of colossal errors by our leaders, it is going to be with us for a while.

We were warned that an economic day of reckoning would eventually come, and now it is here.

If you are searching for someone to thank for this mess, you can thank Joe Biden, our free spending Congress critters, and the “experts” at the Federal Reserve.

Most Americans trusted them when they told us that they had everything under control.

Now we can see that it was all a charade, and the months ahead are looking exceedingly bleak indeed.

***It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael and my brand new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available on Amazon.com.  In addition to my new book I have written five other books that are available on Amazon.com including  “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”“The Beginning Of The End”“Get Prepared Now”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. (#CommissionsEarned)  When you purchase any of these books you help to support the work that I am doing, and one way that you can really help is by sending digital copies as gifts through Amazon to family and friends.  Time is short, and I need help getting these warnings into the hands of as many people as possible.

I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse BlogEnd Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe.  I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article.  The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions.

I encourage you to follow me on social media on Facebook and Twitter, and any way that you can share these articles with others is a great help.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, I strongly urge you to ask Jesus to be your Lord and Savior today.

Article cross-posted from The Economic Collapse Blog.

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The Engineered Stagflationary Collapse Has Arrived – Here’s What Happens Next https://americanconservativemovement.com/the-engineered-stagflationary-collapse-has-arrived-heres-what-happens-next/ https://americanconservativemovement.com/the-engineered-stagflationary-collapse-has-arrived-heres-what-happens-next/#comments Sat, 18 Jun 2022 19:41:35 +0000 https://americanconservativemovement.com/?p=173566 In my 16 years as an alternative economist and political writer I have spent around half that time warning that the ultimate outcome of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus model would be a stagflationary collapse. Not a deflationary collapse, or an inflationary collapse, but a stagflationary collapse. The reasons for this were very specific – Mass debt creation was being countered with MORE debt creation while many central banks have been simultaneously devaluing their currencies through QE measures. On top of that, the US is in the unique position of relying on the world reserve status of the dollar and that status is diminishing.

It was only a matter of time before the forces of deflation and inflation met in the middle to create stagflation. In my article ‘Infrastructure Bills Do Not Lead To Recovery, Only Increased Federal Control’, published in April of 2021, I stated that:

Production of fiat money is not the same as real production within the economy… Trillions of dollars in public works programs might create more jobs, but it will also inflate prices as the dollar goes into decline. So, unless wages are adjusted constantly according to price increases, people will have jobs, but still won’t be able to afford a comfortable standard of living. This leads to stagflation, in which prices continue to rise while wages and consumption stagnate.

Another Catch-22 to consider is that if inflation becomes rampant, the Federal Reserve may be compelled (or claim they are compelled) to raise interest rates significantly in a short span of time. This means an immediate slowdown in the flow of overnight loans to major banks, an immediate slowdown in loans to large and small businesses, an immediate crash in credit options for consumers, and an overall crash in consumer spending. You might recognize this as the recipe that created the 1981-1982 recession, the third-worst in the 20th century.

In other words, the choice is stagflation, or deflationary depression.”

It’s clear today what the Fed has chosen. It’s important to remember that throughout 2020 and 2021 the mainstream media, the central bank and most government officials were telling the public that inflation was “transitory.” Suddenly in the past few months this has changed and now even Janet Yellen has admitted that she was “wrong” on inflation. This is a misdirection, however, because the Fed knows exactly what it is doing and always has. Yellen denied reality, but she knew she was denying reality. In other words, she was not mistaken about the economic crisis, she lied about it.

As I outlined last December in my article ‘The Fed’s Catch-22 Taper Is A Weapon, Not A Policy Error’:

‘First and foremost, no, the Fed is not motivated by profits, at least not primarily. The Fed is able to print wealth at will, they don’t care about profits – They care about power and centralization. Would they sacrifice “the golden goose” of US markets in order to gain more power and full bore globalism? Absolutely. Would central bankers sacrifice the dollar and blow up the Fed as an institution in order to force a global currency system on the masses? There is no doubt; they’ve put the US economy at risk in the past in order to get more centralization.’

The Fed has known for years that the current path would lead to inflation and then market destruction, and here’s the proof – Fed Chairman Jerome Powell actually warned about this exact outcome in October of 2012:

“I have concerns about more purchases. As others have pointed out, the dealer community is now assuming close to a $4 trillion balance sheet and purchases through the first quarter of 2014. I admit that is a much stronger reaction than I anticipated, and I am uncomfortable with it for a couple of reasons. First, the question, why stop at $4 trillion? The market in most cases will cheer us for doing more. It will never be enough for the market. Our models will always tell us that we are helping the economy, and I will probably always feel that those benefits are overestimated. And we will be able to tell ourselves that market function is not impaired and that inflation expectations are under control. What is to stop us, other than much faster economic growth, which it is probably not in our power to produce?

When it is time for us to sell, or even to stop buying, the response could be quite strong; there is every reason to expect a strong response. So there are a couple of ways to look at it. It is about $1.2 trillion in sales; you take 60 months, you get about $20 billion a month. That is a very doable thing, it sounds like, in a market where the norm by the middle of next year is $80 billion a month. Another way to look at it, though, is that it’s not so much the sale, the duration; it’s also unloading our short volatility position.”

As we all now know, the Fed waited until their balance sheet was far larger and until the economy was MUCH weaker than it was in 2012 to unleash tightening measures. They KNEW the whole time exactly what was going to happen.

It is no coincidence that the culmination of the Fed’s stimulus bonanza has arrived right after the incredible damage done to the economy and the global supply chain by the covid lockdowns. It is no coincidence that these two events work together to create the perfect stagflationary scenario. And, it’s no coincidence that the only people who benefit from these conditions are proponents of the “Great Reset” ideology at the World Economic Forum and other globalist institutions. This is an engineered collapse that has been in the works for many years.

The goal is to “reset” the world, to erase what’s left of free market systems, and to establish what they call the “Shared Economy” system. This system is one in which the people who survive the crash will be made utterly dependent on government through Universal Basic Income and one that will restrict all resource usage in the name of “carbon reduction.” According to the WEF, you will own nothing and you will like it.

The collapse is engineered to create crisis conditions so frightening that they expect the majority of the public to submit to a collectivist hive mind lifestyle with greatly reduced standards. This would be accomplished through UBI, digital currency models, carbon taxation, population reduction, rationing of all commodities and a social credit system. The goal, in other words, is complete control through technocratic authoritarianism.

All of this is dependent on the exploitation of crisis events to create fear in the population. Now that economic destabilization has arrived, what happens next? Here are my predictions…

The Fed Will Hike Interest Rates More Than Expected, But Not Enough To Stop Inflation

Today, we are witnessing the poisonous fruits of a decade-plus of massive fiat money creation and we are now at the stage where the Fed will reveal its true plan. Hiking interest rates fast, or hiking them slow. Fast hikes will mean an almost immediate crash in markets (beyond what we have already seen), slow hikes will mean a drawn out process of price inflation and general uncertainty.

I believe the Fed will hike more than expected, but not enough to actually slow inflation in necessities. There will be an overall decline in luxury items, recreation commerce and non-essentials, but most other goods will continue to climb in cost. It is to the advantage of globalists to keep the inflation train running for another year or longer.

In the end, though, the central bank WILL declare that the pace of interest rates is not enough to stop inflation and they will revert to a Volcker-like strategy, pushing rates up so high that the economy simply stops functioning altogether.

Markets Will Crash And Unemployment Will Abruptly Spike

Stock markets are utterly dependent on Fed stimulus and easy money through low interest rate loans – This is a fact. Without low rates and QE, corporations cannot engage in stock buybacks. Meaning, the tools for artificially inflating equities are disappearing. We are already seeing the effects of this now with markets dropping 20% or more.

The Fed will not capitulate. They will continue to hike regardless of the market reaction.

As far as jobs are concerned, Biden and many mainstream economists constantly applaud the low unemployment rate as proof that the American economy is “strong,” but this is an illusion. Covid stimulus measures temporarily created a dynamic in which businesses needed increased staff to deal with excess retail spending. Now, the covid checks have stopped and Americans have maxed out their credit cards. There is nothing left to keep the system afloat.

Businesses will start making large job cuts throughout the last half of 2022.

Price Controls

I have no doubt that Joe Biden and Democrats will seek to enforce price controls on many goods as inflation continues, and there will be a handful of Republicans that will support the tactic. Price controls actually lead to a reduction in supply because they remove all profits and thus all incentive for manufacturers to keep producing goods. What usually happens at that point is government steps in to nationalize manufacturing, but this will be substandard production and at a much lower yield.

In the end, supplies are reduced even further and prices go even higher on the black market because no one can get their hands on most goods anyway.

Rationing

Yes, rationing at the manufacturing and distribution level is going to happen, so be sure to buy what you need now before it does. Rationing occurs in the wake of price controls or supply chain disruptions, and usually this coincides with a government propaganda campaign against “hoarders.”

They will hold up a few exaggerated examples of people who buy truckloads of merchandise to scalp prices on the black market. Then, not long after, they will accuse preppers and anyone who bought goods BEFORE the crisis of “hoarding” simply because they planned ahead.

Rationing is not only about controlling the supply of necessities and thus controlling the population by proxy; it is also about creating an atmosphere of blame and suspicion within the public and getting them to snitch on or attack anyone that is prepared. Prepared people represent a threat to the establishment, so expect to be demonized in the media and organize with other prepared people to protect yourself.

Be Ready, It Only Gets Worse From Here On

It might sound like I am predicting success of the Great Reset program, but I actually believe the globalists will fail in the end. That’s not going to stop them from making the attempt. Also, the above scenarios are only predictions for the near term (within the next couple of years). There will be many other problems that stem from these situations.

Naturally, food riots and other mob actions will become more commonplace, perhaps not this year, but by the end of 2023 they will definitely be a problem. This will coincide with the return of political unrest in the US as leftist factions, encouraged by globalist foundations, demand more government intervention in poverty. At the same time, conservatives will demand less government interference and less tyranny.

At bottom, the people who are prepared might be called a lot of mean names, but as long as we organize and work together, we will survive. Many unprepared people will NOT survive. Understand that the economic conditions ahead of us are historically destructive; there is no way that serious consequences can be avoided for a large part of the population, if only because they refuse to listen and to take proper steps to protect themselves.

The denial is over. The crash is here. Time to take action if you have not done so already.


Editor’s Commentary: As always, I appreciate Brandon’s insights and I agree with the vast majority of what he wrote here. I cannot stress enough that we select our sponsors based less on how much money we can make and far more on what purpose they serve our nation. This is why, after several years of denying every precious metals company that knocked on our doors, we finally searched for the right ones last year. The reason was obvious: For the first time in my life, I truly feared economic collapse could be coming.

We selected Our Gold Guy for physical precious metals and JD GoldCo for a wide array of precious metals offerings. Both are America First companies, and unlike others in the space, our sponsors are not influenced or owned by Chinese interests. Moreover, their leadership is not donating to Democrats; these are real patriots. For wealth or retirement protection, I strongly recommend both companies.

For those of us who want to prepare for a near-future economic collapse, I recommend food preparedness and survival companies. There are three we like based on what they bring to the market:

It is so important that as many Americans as possible are independent and with as few dependencies on government as possible. We need patriots who are able to fight the collapse when it comes or to rebuild afterwards if we can’t stop it. Godspeed.


Image via Shutterstock. Article cross-posted from Alt-Market.

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