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As the 2024 election looms, the narrative pushed by the Biden-Harris administration seems to be unraveling. Most polls may show Vice President Kamala Harris leading in key swing states, but two Southern state pollsters are challenging that narrative, revealing a significant lead for former President Donald Trump. Could this be a sign that Harris’s time in the spotlight is fading?
Polling conducted by InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar across seven battleground states indicates that Trump is on a trajectory toward 296 electoral votes, suggesting that Harris has already lost her momentum. Matt Towery of Georgia-based InsiderAdvantage found Trump ahead in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, with only a narrow 0.4% deficit in Georgia. Should the Harris campaign be worried? You bet they should.
Towery, who has a proven track record as one of the top pollsters in the 2016 and 2020 cycles, noted that his methodology allows him to “pick up some Trump vote that some of the other pollsters might not be able to get.” This raises the question: Are the mainstream polls deliberately downplaying Trump’s support?
While it’s true that Trump’s leads are narrow and within the margin of error—meaning these states could swing either way on Election Day—Towery believes that Harris is stalling now that her novelty has worn off. “The momentum that we were seeing after the Democratic National Convention has sort of come to an end,” he stated, and it’s hard to argue with that assessment.
Moreover, the surges in Democratic enthusiasm that followed Harris’s ascension have also slowed, now “close to parity,” according to Towery. This is a troubling sign for the Harris campaign, especially with the upcoming “make or break” presidential debate looming large. Towery predicts that if Trump presents a “realistic” version of himself, “this could become a real turning point like the Carter-Reagan debate that basically sealed the deal” in 1980.
South Carolina-based pollster Robert Calahy concurs on the debate’s significance, suggesting that Harris has “the most to lose” and is in a “no-win situation.” This raises an important question: Is Harris prepared for the scrutiny that comes with such a high-stakes event? Calahy also warns that Trump might say something that “overshadows” the rest of the event, further complicating Harris’s position.
Adding to the concern, Calahy sees “conservative Democrats” flocking to Trump in numbers that could easily outpace any crossover support for Harris. He points out that her apparent disinterest in interviews has left the media feeling “ignored” and “angry.” This is a dangerous game for the Harris campaign, as the media plays a crucial role in shaping public perception.
Despite the promising polling for Trump, Calahy offers a cautionary note: the “Democratic machine” can shave “a point or two” off the spread. This means that a narrow lead in September may not reflect the final outcome.
In a political landscape rife with manipulation and double standards, one must wonder: Is the Biden-Harris administration truly prepared for the challenges ahead, or are they simply hoping for a miracle? As the election draws near, the stakes have never been higher, and the truth may be more elusive than ever.
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