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For Republicans to take control of the United States Senate after the midterm elections, they need to gain a net of just one seat. Yet several election modelers give the Democrats at least a two-thirds chance to keep control.
Why have the GOP’s Senate chances been relegated to a 1-in-3 shot? Because, with Dr. Mehmet Oz running poorly in his attempt to keep Pennsylvania’s seat out of Democratic hands, Republicans have only one solid geographic path to victory: flipping both Nevada and Georgia. Those are the only two states where the Republican challenger is running neck-and-neck with a Democratic incumbent.
The Republican map has shrunk with Arizona’s Blake Masters trailing Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly by six percentage points, and New Hampshire’s Don Bolduc down eight points against Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan, according to RealClearPolitics poll averages. Sen. Rick Scott, who heads the Republicans’ national Senate campaign arm, not too long ago spoke optimistically of expanding the map into Colorado, Connecticut, and Washington State, but that looks fantastical at the moment.
Granted, we should be careful not to treat poll numbers as gospel, especially considering the 2020 Senate elections featured some very big whiffs. Maine’s Susan Collins didn’t lead in a single autumn survey yet won by nearly nine percentage points. Montana polls suggested a tight Senate race, but Steve Daines coasted to a 10-point victory. North Carolina’s Cal Cunningham was up by 2.6 points in the final RCP average, but Thom Tillis came out on top by 1.8 points.
But the proof of the pudding is in the spending. The Super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell last week pulled out of Arizona, presumably seeing little hope for a candidate who once said convicted domestic terrorist Ted Kaczynski has “a lot of insight there that is correct.” Democrats in Arizona have outspent Republicans 2-to-1, and Kelly ads have aired four times more frequently than Masters ads.
McConnell’s Super PAC has not yet abandoned Bolduc, but he only became the nominee on Sept. 13. He will likely have to narrow the poll gap soon to maintain national party support.
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Republicans have also not given up on Oz. Some mid-summer polls showed the Democratic nominee John Fetterman with leads between nine and 13 points, but now holds a more modest 4.2 point lead in the RCP average.
Oz, who survived a bruising primary, appears to have consolidated Republican support. But Oz has not cut into Fetterman’s level of support, nor has he endeared himself to voters. After the hits he took in the primary as a creature of Hollywood, Fetterman’s campaign pilloried him as a creature of New Jersey. In a recent Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll, Oz had an atrocious 29% favorable rating, with 53% of respondents holding an unfavorable impression. Fetterman, in contrast, was slightly above water, 44% favorable and 41% unfavorable.
Nevertheless, Republicans have reason to stick by Oz. Fetterman’s health following his May stroke remains a political wild card. In a CBS News/YouGov poll, 59% said Fetterman is “in good enough health to serve in public office.” But we can’t rule out the possibility that something could happen in a debate or on the campaign trail which could alter those numbers. Furthermore, as I noted above, taking Pennsylvania off the gameboard makes the Republican battle twice as steep, requiring wins in both remaining competitive contests. So Republicans aren’t going to rush to surrender the Keystone State.
Meanwhile, Democrats have done a better job expanding their map. Mandela Barnes’ early lead versus Wisconsin’s incumbent Republican Ron Johnson has vanished following a barrage of ads accusing him of being a “Defund-the-Police Democrat” who has paroled “murderers” and “child rapists.” (Oz’s campaign is similarly trying to use Fetterman’s record chairing the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons as fodder for attacks.) But Johnson’s RCP lead is a spare 1.5 points, keeping Barnes in the mix. Plus, Democrats are running only two points behind in Ohio and North Carolina, and about three points in Florida, with candidates who are more moderate than Fetterman and Barnes.
All of these races may be stretches, but they give Democrats multiple geographic paths for avoiding a net loss of Senate seats and retaining control.
In all likelihood, the Republicans’ majority hopes rest on the shoulders of Nevada’s Adam Laxalt and Georgia’s Herschel Walker. Laxalt has the much stronger political pedigree, for better or worse. His father Paul Laxalt was a longtime fixture in Nevada politics, a popular governor and senator. Adam’s own record is more mixed: while he won the attorney general’s race in 2014, he lost the gubernatorial election four years later.
While the pro-life Laxalt may prove too conservative for the light blue, libertine Silver State, he knows what it is like to run statewide, which gives Republican leaders some comfort with his electoral prospects. Walker, on the other hand, is a former football star who has never run for office before. He has made a series of bewildering comments on the campaign trail. And Democrats are airing ads with a clip of Walker admitting he “put a gun to [the] head” of his ex-wife. Despite those attacks, the race is effectively tied in the polls, so Walker could pull it off. But one imagines Republican leaders can’t be thrilled that their majority depends on the political resilience of a scandal-tarred political novice.
We can’t know which way the Senate will go in November. But we do know the Republican path to victory is much narrower than it had to be.
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
