- Watch The JD Rucker Show every day to be truly informed.
Every time that they tell us that everything is fine, things just seem to get even worse. This banking crisis was supposed to be “over” after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed. It wasn’t. Then it was supposed to be “over” after First Republic collapsed. It wasn’t.
By now, most of you already know about what has been happening to PacWest, Western Alliance, First Horizon and countless other regional bank stocks. In all my years, I have never seen banking stocks fall so quickly. If this avalanche continues to pick up momentum, pretty soon we will have to stop talking about a “banking industry crisis” and start talking about a “banking industry apocalypse”.
Ironically, I think that CNN has actually summarized the current state of affairs better than anyone else…
A summary of where things stand in the banking crisis:
The Fed: “Banks are fine.”
The Treasury: “Banks are fine.”
The banks: “We’re fine.”
Wall Street: “Everybody sell, the banks are on fire!”
On Thursday, PacWest released a carefully worded statement that was supposed to calm investors down…
Our message remains consistent with what was conveyed last week with earnings. As previously announced, the Company has explored strategic asset sales, including moving the $2.7 billion Lender Finance loan portfolio to held for sale in 1Q23. This planned sale remains on track and upon completion will accelerate our CET1 capital ratio to 10%+ (from 9.21% at 1Q23). Additionally, in accordance with normal practices the Company and its Board of Directors continuously review strategic options. Recently, the Company has been approached by several potential partners and investors – discussions are ongoing. The company will continue to evaluate all options to maximize shareholder value.
But instead this statement sparked a massive wave of panic and the stock dropped more than 50 percent…
The rout in regional banks picked up steam again on Thursday morning, with several stocks suffering sizeable losses.
PacWest sank 50.6% was halted for volatility multiple times. The slide began on Wednesday evening following news that the Los Angeles-based bank was exploring strategic options, including a potential sale.
Western Alliance was down 38 percent even though it pushed back very hard against a report by the Financial Times that indicated that a sale of the bank was being explored…
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Western Alliance is exploring strategic options including a potential sale of all or part of its business, the Financial Times reported on Thursday citing two people briefed on the matter.
The Arizona-based bank has hired advisers to explore its options, the report added, saying the bank’s deliberations were at an early stage and might not come to anything.
And shares of First Horizon fell 37 percent when the market opened after their merger with Toronto-Dominion Bank fell through…
First Horizon Corp. shares plunged 37% at the cash open in New York, the most significant decline since September 2008.
Bloomberg reported First Horizon held a conference call earlier today, seeking to calm investors after the merger agreement with Toronto-Dominion Bank was “terminated.” The regional bank said it has ‘stable funding’ and adequate capital.
Those are the three big names that are dominating the headlines right now, but there are many more institutions that are teetering on the brink of insolvency.
In fact, one recent study determined that “186 more banks are at risk of failure”…
After the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, a study on the fragility of the U.S. banking system found that 186 more banks are at risk of failure even if only half of their uninsured depositors (uninsured depositors stand to lose a part of their deposits if the bank fails, potentially giving them incentives to run) decide to withdraw their funds.
So what is the bottom line?
The bottom line is that things are bad, and now that the Fed has decided to raise interest rates again they will soon get even worse.
At this stage, very few banks are truly safe. Depositors continue to pull money out of the system, bonds that are held by these banks continue to lose value, and more loans are going bad with each passing day.
This banking crisis is far from over.
In fact, it is just beginning.
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Yesterday, Bill Ackman warned that our entire regional banking system “is at risk”…
The regional banking system is at risk. SVB’s depositors’ bad weekend woke up uninsured depositors everywhere. The rapid rise in rates impaired assets and drained deposits. Zeroing out shareholders and bondholders massively increased the banks’ cost of capital. CRE losses loom. Meanwhile, higher-yield, more user- friendly alternatives beckon @Apple.
The @FDICgov failure to update and expand its insurance regime has hammered more nails in the coffin. FRB would not have failed if the FDIC temporarily guaranteed deposits while a new guarantee regime were created. Instead, we watch the dominoes fall at great systemic and economic cost.
Banking is a confidence game. At this rate, no regional bank can survive bad news or bad data as a stock price plunge inevitably follows, insured and uninsured deposits are withdrawn and ‘pursuing strategic alternatives’ means an FDIC shutdown over the coming weekend.
He is mostly correct.
But I will quibble with him on one point.
Even if all deposits in the system are fully guaranteed, a lot of people will still be pulling their money out.
As Zero Hedge has aptly noted, many wealthy individuals are transferring funds from checking accounts that yield next to nothing to money market funds that pay around five percent…
People are not moving their money because of deposit loss fears: everyone already knows unlimited insurance is guaranteed, especially in blue states; they are moving because it takes 30 seconds to transfer from a 0.01% yielding checking account to a 5.1% money market.
The Federal Reserve could help the banks by cutting interest rates.
But that isn’t going to happen any time soon.
So brace yourselves for more bank failures.
Prior to the collapse of First Republic, Gallup conducted a survey that asked Americans if they are concerned about the money that they have in the banking system.
These are the results…
Amid turbulence in the U.S. banking system, nearly half of Americans are anxious about the safety of the money they have in accounts at banks or other financial institutions. A total of 48% of U.S. adults say they are concerned about their money, including 19% who are “very” and 29% who are “moderately” worried. At the same time, 30% are “not too worried” and 20% are “not worried at all.”
These findings are from a Gallup poll conducted April 3-25, the month after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed. News about the failure of a third bank — First Republic — came after the poll was completed.
Needless to say, the events of the past couple of weeks are not going to help people feel any better.
Our banking system is in a tremendous amount of trouble, and this is just one element of the broader societal meltdown that we are currently witnessing.
I am extremely concerned about the rest of 2023.
And I am even more concerned about what 2024 will bring.
Events are starting to move very rapidly now, and very dark days are ahead.
Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Article cross-posted from The Economic Collapse Blog.
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
