The inflation monster has been unleashed

The monster known as inflation has been unleashed upon the world and will not easily retreat into the night. This is reflected in soaring commodity and housing prices. Due to the stupid and self-serving policies of the Fed, we are about to experience a massive shift in the way we live. Bubbling up to the surface is also the recognition the Fed has played a major role in pushing inequality higher. This means that inflation is about to devour the purchasing power of our income and the savings of those that have worked hard and saved over the years.

Over the months we have watched Fed Chairman Jerome Powell time and time again cut rates and increase the Fed’s balance sheet. This has hurt savers, forced investors into risky investments in search of yield, damaged the dollar, encouraged politicians to spend like drunken sailors, and increased inequality. The greatest wealth transfer in history has already begun and the next crisis will only accelerate the process. Sadly, the same policies that dump huge money into larger businesses because it is an easier and faster way to bolster the economy give these concerns a huge advantage over their smaller competitors.

For decades the American people have watched their incomes lag behind the cost of living. To make matters worse, the official numbers of the so-called Consumer Price Index (CPI) have been rigged to understate inflation and not to reflect the true impact it was having on our lives. Want to know where the real cost of things is going, just look at the replacement cost from recent storms and natural disasters. Currently, the government understates inflation by using a formula based on the concept of a “constant level of satisfaction” that evolved during the first half of the 20th century in academia. This has skewed expectations and led many people to think inflation is not something they need to worry about.

While many workers are chilling at home or working reduced hours due to covid-19 lock-downs many are paying little attention to the huge number of job opportunities that are vanishing every day. Jobs are being eliminated at an alarming rate and the soaring wages businesses must pay to get people to work is adding a whole new element to this situation. It encourages businesses to bring in machines that reduce the need for human workers. Those putting a friendly face on this calling it “creative destruction” may someday look back at the problems created by jobs vanishing with huge regret. Millions of small businesses being decimated by Fed policies that favor huge companies coupled with a surge in automation bodes poorly for small businesses and those looking for work.

A large part of our dilemma centers around the large number of Americans that have become dependent on the government. To put this into context, the  transfer of payments has been rising for decades but the covid-19 crisis has allowed it to explode. During the 50s and 60s, it was around 7% for a short period in the mid-70s, and following the 2008 financial crisis, it hit the high teens. As the chart on the right indicates this is far above any intervention we have experienced in the past. This is why in this bizarre economy nobody should consider the GDP as an indicator of our economic health.   

Massive liquidity injections and low-interest rates may temporarily mask a multitude of sins but they are not a long-term solution. While many investors talk about how they drive the economy and markets ever higher their correlation to healthy growth is very weak. Japan is proof that low-interest rates do not guarantee a booming economy. The current low rates combined with our massive government deficit are creating a false economy and at the same time baking in a higher overall cost structure for goods and services.

Central banks across the world continue to claim the lack of inflation is the key force driving their QE policy and permitting it to continue. The moment inflation begins to take root much of their flexibility is lost, that is why they are now pushing the idea what we are seeing is transitory. They would be wise to remember that inflation is not contained to manufactured consumer goods but can also take root in the area of fees, tolls, and taxes. People tend to forget just how much of government spending is done on the local and state level where simply printing more money is not an option for eliminating revenue shortfalls. This translates into a slew of revenue-driven schemes being cobbled together that will soon drive up the cost of living.

We should remember that inflation hits those on the middle and lowest end of the economic spectrum hardest, and the reality is this means over 90% of the population will suffer from its impact. Years ago President Eisenhower warned the American people about the Industrial Military Complex, but nobody warned us of an even more evil alliance that I call the “Financial-Political Complex.” This unholy alliance of the Federal Reserve, the government, and the too big to fail has left the rest of us in a precarious position. Following the 2008 global crisis, the authorities acting primarily to prop up governments and the economy took actions to save the financial system by bringing big banks deeper into the fold. The policies put forth by those in charge of this ill-conceived force are centered on promoting what is good for them and not the people or the nation.

For over a decade the actions of the Financial-Political Complex have destroyed true price discovery and increased inequality. A huge factor in allowing the world to move forward following the 2008 financial crisis is the massive growth in the money supply. The explosion in debt and credit has caused the financial sector to become a far bigger part of our economy than it should be. History shows that inflation raises its ugly head as currencies are debased. A good deal of the speculation driving commodities today is related to predictions the dollar is about to collapse. Due to the fact, none of the four major currencies are anything to brag about, such predictions are likely premature and overblown.

Still, this is driving the renewed interest in both precious metals and cryptocurrencies. Another factor causing some people to distance themselves from fiat currencies is the idea governments have targeted cash and wish to move us towards a “cashless” society where they control our every move. Today’s lower yields are part of a greater conundrum created by the reality of too much freshly printed money floating around and people needing someplace to stash it. Inflation can stem from a growing lack of faith in a currency, or all currencies, rather than just a lack of available goods. As inflation takes root the goods available for sale often contracts as sellers retreat from the market awaiting higher prices which creates a self-feeding loop. This often causes governments to create schemes to halt rising prices such as rent freezes that only exacerbate the situation.

In the past, I have warned the financial system is not the economy even though many people do not recognize the distinction. This means the gigantic efforts by the world’s central banks and governments to essentially “bail-out” both will prove somewhat ineffective. While Covid-19 has become the catalyst for a major reset of both the financial sector and the Main Street economy, the landscape of both may be dramatically different when the dust settles. Anyone who does not view how things have changed since governments have made covid-19 into a watershed event is oblivious to the world around them

We should make a real effort to remember to mind the gap between events appearing on the radar and when they actually impact day-to-day life. There is such a thing as lag-time, everything is not immediate in our fast-moving world, some events take time to play out. The covid-19 crisis is greatly complicated because we have no real idea of how long it will persist. Hints have been made, possibly to ready the population, that this could continue for years. If someone is suspicious by nature they might think much of what we are seeing had been planned.

Article by Bruce Wilds.

Image by Foto-Rabe from Pixabay

‘The Purge’ by Big Tech targets conservatives, including us

Just when we thought the Covid-19 lockdowns were ending and our ability to stay afloat was improving, censorship reared its ugly head.

For the last few months, NOQ Report, Conservative Playbook, and the American Conservative Movement have appealed to our readers for assistance in staying afloat through Covid-19 lockdowns. The downturn in the economy has limited our ability to generate proper ad revenue just as our traffic was skyrocketing. We had our first sustained stretch of three months with over a million visitors in November, December, and January, but February saw a dip.

It wasn’t just the shortened month. We expected that. We also expected the continuation of dropping traffic from “woke” Big Tech companies like Google, Facebook, and Twitter, but it has actually been much worse than anticipated. Our Twitter account was banned. Both of our YouTube accounts were banned. Facebook “fact-checks” everything we post. Spotify canceled us. Medium canceled us. Apple canceled us. Why? Because we believe in the truth prevailing, and that means we will continue to discuss “taboo” topics.

The 2020 presidential election was stolen. You can’t say that on Big Tech platforms without risking cancellation, but we’d rather get cancelled for telling the truth rather than staying around to repeat mainstream media’s lies. They have been covering it up since before the election and they’ve convinced the vast majority of conservative news outlets that they will be harmed if they continue to discuss voter fraud. We refuse to back down. The truth is the truth.

The lies associated with Covid-19 are only slightly more prevalent than the suppression of valid scientific information that runs counter to the prescribed narrative. We should be allowed to ask questions about the vaccines, for example, as there is ample evidence for concern. One does not have to be an “anti-vaxxer” in order to want answers about vaccines that are still considered experimental and that have a track record in a short period of time of having side-effects, including death. One of our stories about the Johnson & Johnson “vaccine” causing blood clots was “fact-checked” and removed one day before the government hit the brakes on it. These questions and news items are not allowed on Big Tech which is just another reason we are getting canceled.

There are more topics that they refuse to allow. In turn, we refuse to stop discussing them. This is why we desperately need your help. The best way NOQ, CP, and ACM readers can help is to donate. Our Giving Fuel page makes it easy to donate one-time or monthly. Alternatively, you can donate through PayPal as well. We are on track to be short by about $4100 per month in order to maintain operations.

The second way to help is to become a partner. We’ve strongly considered seeking angel investors in the past but because we were paying the bills, it didn’t seem necessary. Now, we’re struggling to pay the bills. We had 5,657,724 sessions on our website from November, 2020, through February, 2021. Our intention is to elevate that to higher levels this year by focusing on a strategy that relies on free speech rather than being beholden to progressive Big Tech companies.

During that four-month stretch, Twitter and Facebook accounted for about 20% of our traffic. We are actively working on operating as if that traffic is zero, replacing it with platforms that operate more freely such as Gab, Parler, and others. While we were never as dependent on Big Tech as most conservative sites, we’d like to be completely free from them. That doesn’t mean we will block them, but we refuse to be beholden to companies that absolutely despise us simply because of our political ideology.

We’re heading in the right direction and we believe we’re ready talk to patriotic investors who want to not only “get in on the action” but more importantly who want to help America hear the truth. Interested investors should contact me directly with the contact button above.

As the world spirals towards radical progressivism, the need for truthful journalism has never been greater. But in these times, we need as many conservative media voices as possible. Please help keep NOQ Report going.

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